The Jet2 plc (LON:JET2) Half-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Jet2 plc (LON:JET2) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to UK£10.07 in the week since its latest half-year results. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Jet2

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Jet2's ten analysts is for revenues of UK£4.88b in 2023, which would reflect a decent 12% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be UK£0.93, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£4.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.05 in 2023. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£13.66, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jet2 at UK£18.80 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£7.40. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Jet2's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 25% growth to the end of 2023 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 10% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So it looks like Jet2 is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jet2. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£13.66, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Jet2 analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Jet2's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.