Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that RM plc (LON:RM.) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for RM
What Is RM's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that RM had UK£7.26m of debt in November 2020, down from UK£20.5m, one year before. However, it does have UK£5.94m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about UK£1.32m.
How Healthy Is RM's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that RM had liabilities of UK£64.6m due within a year, and liabilities of UK£52.4m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of UK£5.94m and UK£29.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling UK£81.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because RM is worth UK£179.2m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. But either way, RM has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
With debt at a measly 0.083 times EBITDA and EBIT covering interest a whopping 13.3 times, it's clear that RM is not a desperate borrower. So relative to past earnings, the debt load seems trivial. It is just as well that RM's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 52% over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if RM can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, RM produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 52% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
While RM's EBIT growth rate has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that RM is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with RM .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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About LSE:RM.
RM
Supplies products, services, and solutions to educational markets in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
Good value low.