If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. Although, when we looked at Netcall (LON:NET), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Netcall is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.066 = UK£2.2m ÷ (UK£51m - UK£18m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).
Therefore, Netcall has an ROCE of 6.6%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 7.3%, it's still a low return by itself.
See our latest analysis for Netcall
In the above chart we have measured Netcall's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Netcall here for free.
How Are Returns Trending?
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Netcall, we didn't gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 8.7%, but since then they've fallen to 6.6%. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
The Bottom Line On Netcall's ROCE
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Netcall's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 63% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.
One more thing: We've identified 3 warning signs with Netcall (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding these would certainly be useful.
While Netcall may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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About AIM:NET
Netcall
Engages in the design, development, sale, and support of software products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.