When Should You Buy Halfords Group plc (LON:HFD)?

While Halfords Group plc (LON:HFD) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the LSE, rising to highs of UK£3.70 and falling to the lows of UK£2.27. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Halfords Group's current trading price of UK£2.29 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Halfords Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out our latest analysis for Halfords Group

Is Halfords Group still cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 12.95% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Halfords Group today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth £2.03, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Halfords Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Halfords Group?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Halfords Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 27%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? HFD’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on HFD, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. While conducting our analysis, we found that Halfords Group has 4 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.

If you are no longer interested in Halfords Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.