Halfords Group plc

LSE:HFD Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£307.7m

Halfords Group Valuation

Is HFD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFD (£1.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFD?

Key metric: As HFD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HFD. This is calculated by dividing HFD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HFD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.6x
EarningsUK£29.00m
Market CapUK£307.73m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HFD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HFD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.8x
VTU Vertu Motors
10.3xn/aUK£199.1m
LOOK Lookers
7.9x-1.8%UK£503.2m
CARD Card Factory
6.8x15.6%UK£278.3m
VIC Victorian Plumbing Group
30.1x36.2%UK£364.8m
HFD Halfords Group
10.6x13.9%UK£307.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Specialty Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WRKS TheWorks.co.uk
2.2xn/aUS$17.99m
No more companies available in this PE range
HFD 10.6xIndustry Avg. 17.0xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the UK Specialty Retail industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.41
UK£1.59
+12.6%
20.5%UK£2.00UK£1.00n/a6
Nov ’25UK£1.67
UK£1.71
+2.4%
31.3%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a6
Oct ’25UK£1.48
UK£1.69
+13.5%
32.3%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a6
Sep ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.78
+21.1%
31.2%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a7
Aug ’25UK£1.53
UK£1.78
+16.5%
31.2%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a7
Jul ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.83
+25.1%
31.8%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a6
Jun ’25UK£1.54
UK£1.87
+21.5%
26.8%UK£2.38UK£1.00n/a7
May ’25UK£1.49
UK£1.87
+25.2%
26.8%UK£2.38UK£1.00n/a7
Apr ’25UK£1.61
UK£1.87
+16.3%
26.8%UK£2.38UK£1.00n/a7
Mar ’25UK£1.56
UK£1.94
+24.7%
23.8%UK£2.38UK£1.00n/a7
Feb ’25UK£1.78
UK£2.12
+18.7%
19.5%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Jan ’25UK£1.99
UK£2.15
+7.9%
17.0%UK£2.75UK£1.70n/a6
Dec ’24UK£1.92
UK£2.19
+14.2%
16.2%UK£2.75UK£1.70n/a6
Nov ’24UK£2.06
UK£2.26
+9.4%
18.1%UK£2.75UK£1.50UK£1.676
Oct ’24UK£1.98
UK£2.26
+13.9%
18.1%UK£2.75UK£1.50UK£1.486
Sep ’24UK£1.84
UK£2.24
+22.0%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50UK£1.476
Aug ’24UK£2.17
UK£2.24
+3.2%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50UK£1.536
Jul ’24UK£2.16
UK£2.24
+4.0%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50UK£1.476
Jun ’24UK£2.04
UK£2.20
+7.6%
16.5%UK£2.65UK£1.50UK£1.546
May ’24UK£2.10
UK£2.22
+5.5%
16.5%UK£2.65UK£1.50UK£1.496
Apr ’24UK£1.75
UK£2.01
+14.9%
23.9%UK£2.50UK£1.20UK£1.616
Mar ’24UK£2.05
UK£2.01
-2.1%
23.9%UK£2.50UK£1.20UK£1.566
Feb ’24UK£2.06
UK£1.97
-4.6%
23.8%UK£2.50UK£1.20UK£1.786
Jan ’24UK£2.09
UK£2.43
+16.0%
29.9%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£1.996
Dec ’23UK£1.97
UK£2.43
+22.8%
29.9%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£1.926
Nov ’23UK£1.87
UK£2.38
+26.8%
31.4%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£2.066

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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