Halfords Group Valuation

Is HFD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFD (£1.61) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFD is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HFD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HFD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HFD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.4x
LOOK Lookers
7.9x-1.8%UK£503.2m
PINE Pinewood Technologies Group
11.7x-40.8%UK£536.5m
VTU Vertu Motors
8.4x7.5%UK£222.6m
CFYN Caffyns
9.6xn/aUK£12.3m
HFD Halfords Group
10.3x11.4%UK£350.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HFD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (9.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the UK Specialty Retail industry average (14.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.3x
Fair PE Ratio13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.61
UK£1.92
+19.5%
29.6%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a7
Mar ’25UK£1.56
UK£2.00
+28.3%
26.4%UK£2.75UK£1.00n/a7
Feb ’25UK£1.78
UK£2.18
+22.5%
21.6%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Jan ’25UK£1.99
UK£2.15
+7.9%
17.0%UK£2.75UK£1.70n/a6
Dec ’24UK£1.92
UK£2.19
+14.2%
16.2%UK£2.75UK£1.70n/a6
Nov ’24UK£2.06
UK£2.26
+9.4%
18.1%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Oct ’24UK£1.98
UK£2.26
+13.9%
18.1%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Sep ’24UK£1.84
UK£2.24
+22.0%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Aug ’24UK£2.17
UK£2.24
+3.2%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Jul ’24UK£2.16
UK£2.24
+4.0%
18.2%UK£2.75UK£1.50n/a6
Jun ’24UK£2.04
UK£2.20
+7.6%
16.5%UK£2.65UK£1.50n/a6
May ’24UK£2.10
UK£2.22
+5.5%
16.5%UK£2.65UK£1.50n/a6
Apr ’24UK£1.75
UK£2.01
+14.9%
23.9%UK£2.50UK£1.20n/a6
Mar ’24UK£2.05
UK£2.01
-2.1%
23.9%UK£2.50UK£1.20UK£1.566
Feb ’24UK£2.06
UK£1.97
-4.6%
23.8%UK£2.50UK£1.20UK£1.786
Jan ’24UK£2.09
UK£2.43
+16.0%
29.9%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£1.996
Dec ’23UK£1.97
UK£2.43
+22.8%
29.9%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£1.926
Nov ’23UK£1.87
UK£2.38
+26.8%
31.4%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£2.066
Oct ’23UK£1.32
UK£2.36
+78.9%
31.7%UK£3.50UK£1.50UK£1.986
Sep ’23UK£1.30
UK£2.89
+122.1%
48.4%UK£5.45UK£1.50UK£1.846
Aug ’23UK£1.72
UK£3.14
+82.3%
40.0%UK£5.45UK£1.60UK£2.176
Jul ’23UK£1.46
UK£3.14
+115.2%
40.0%UK£5.45UK£1.60UK£2.166
Jun ’23UK£2.24
UK£4.34
+94.2%
15.7%UK£5.45UK£3.30UK£2.046
May ’23UK£2.26
UK£4.77
+110.5%
10.2%UK£5.45UK£4.10UK£2.106
Apr ’23UK£2.59
UK£4.77
+83.9%
10.2%UK£5.45UK£4.10UK£1.756
Mar ’23UK£2.61
UK£4.77
+82.4%
10.2%UK£5.45UK£4.10UK£2.056

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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