What Does Headlam Group plc's (LON:HEAD) Share Price Indicate?

While Headlam Group plc (LON:HEAD) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the LSE over the last few months. Less-covered, small caps sees more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Let’s examine Headlam Group’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

View our latest analysis for Headlam Group

What is Headlam Group worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 11.43% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Headlam Group today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £4.74, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Headlam Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Headlam Group look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Headlam Group's revenue growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? HEAD’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on HEAD, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for Headlam Group from their most recent forecasts. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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