At UK£4.40, Is Headlam Group plc (LON:HEAD) Worth Looking At Closely?

Headlam Group plc (LON:HEAD), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the LSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, which tends to lack high analyst coverage, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s take a look at Headlam Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Headlam Group

What's the opportunity in Headlam Group?

According to my valuation model, Headlam Group seems to be fairly priced at around 9.10% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Headlam Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £4.03, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Headlam Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Headlam Group generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With revenues expected to grow by a double-digit 21% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for Headlam Group. If the level of expenses is able to be maintained, it looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? HEAD’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on HEAD, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Diving deeper into the forecasts for Headlam Group mentioned earlier will help you understand how analysts view the stock going forward. So feel free to check out our free graph representing analyst forecasts.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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