Moonpig Group PLC

BATS-CHIXE:MOONL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£759.3m

Moonpig Group Valuation

Is MOONL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MOONL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MOONL (£2.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MOONL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOONL?

Key metric: As MOONL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MOONL. This is calculated by dividing MOONL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MOONL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.2x
SalesUK£346.99m
Market CapUK£759.27m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MOONL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MOONL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
PETS Pets at Home Group
0.6x3.7%UK£940.5m
WOSG Watches of Switzerland Group
0.9x8.4%UK£1.4b
CARD Card Factory
0.6x7.5%UK£337.1m
SMWH WH Smith
0.8x5.4%UK£1.5b
MOONL Moonpig Group
2.2x7.8%UK£759.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MOONL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MOONL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Specialty Retail Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VTU Vertu Motors
0.04x5.7%US$245.89m
CFYN Caffyns
0.05xn/aUS$15.43m
WRKS TheWorks.co.uk
0.04xn/aUS$15.31m
MMAG musicMagpie
0.07xn/aUS$11.18m
No. of Companies7PS00.40.81.21.62+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MOONL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the UK Specialty Retail industry average (0.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MOONL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MOONL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.2x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MOONL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MOONL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£2.21
UK£3.12
+41.2%
12.7%UK£3.90UK£2.50n/a10
Dec ’25UK£2.50
UK£3.11
+24.2%
13.3%UK£3.90UK£2.50n/a10
Nov ’25UK£2.49
UK£2.99
+20.1%
16.4%UK£3.90UK£2.20n/a10
Oct ’25UK£2.06
UK£2.58
+25.7%
17.5%UK£3.50UK£1.70n/a10
Sep ’25UK£2.11
UK£2.48
+17.6%
14.1%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a9
Aug ’25UK£2.17
UK£2.48
+14.4%
14.1%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a9
Jul ’25UK£1.87
UK£2.33
+25.0%
16.9%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a9
Jun ’25UK£1.60
UK£2.35
+47.5%
16.3%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a12
May ’25UK£1.56
UK£2.35
+50.7%
16.3%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a12
Apr ’25UK£1.69
UK£2.33
+38.1%
17.2%UK£3.00UK£1.65n/a12
Mar ’25UK£1.67
UK£2.27
+36.0%
17.3%UK£3.00UK£1.65n/a10
Feb ’25UK£1.64
UK£2.27
+37.9%
17.3%UK£3.00UK£1.65n/a10
Jan ’25UK£1.57
UK£2.29
+46.0%
17.2%UK£3.00UK£1.65n/a10
Dec ’24UK£1.77
UK£2.31
+30.0%
17.4%UK£3.00UK£1.65UK£2.5010
Nov ’24UK£1.63
UK£2.31
+41.3%
17.4%UK£3.00UK£1.65UK£2.4910
Oct ’24UK£1.64
UK£2.31
+40.2%
17.4%UK£3.00UK£1.65UK£2.0610
Sep ’24UK£1.72
UK£2.26
+31.7%
17.9%UK£3.00UK£1.65UK£2.1111
Aug ’24UK£1.78
UK£2.24
+25.8%
19.7%UK£3.00UK£1.45UK£2.1711
Jul ’24UK£1.44
UK£2.17
+50.7%
26.0%UK£3.00UK£1.20UK£1.8711
Jun ’24UK£1.34
UK£2.17
+61.8%
26.0%UK£3.00UK£1.20UK£1.6011
May ’24UK£1.37
UK£2.30
+67.9%
23.1%UK£3.00UK£1.35UK£1.5610
Apr ’24UK£1.23
UK£2.32
+88.2%
23.7%UK£3.00UK£1.35UK£1.6910
Mar ’24UK£1.13
UK£2.49
+119.9%
20.9%UK£3.00UK£1.35UK£1.679
Feb ’24UK£1.26
UK£2.49
+98.3%
20.9%UK£3.00UK£1.35UK£1.649
Jan ’24UK£1.11
UK£2.49
+124.2%
20.9%UK£3.00UK£1.35UK£1.579
Dec ’23UK£1.60
UK£3.02
+89.3%
22.3%UK£3.90UK£1.65UK£1.779

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 04:15
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Moonpig Group PLC is covered by 18 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Charlotte BarrieBerenberg
Adam TomlinsonBerenberg
Karl BurnsCanaccord Genuity