Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BATS-CHIXE:AHLAD Stock Report

Market Cap: €178.8b

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is AHLAD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AHLAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AHLAD (€79.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€133.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AHLAD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AHLAD?

Key metric: As AHLAD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AHLAD. This is calculated by dividing AHLAD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AHLAD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.9x
EarningsCN¥85.85b
Market CapCN¥1.36t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AHLAD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AHLAD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
NXT NEXT
14.4x2.6%UK£11.6b
BME B&M European Value Retail
11.2x10.7%UK£3.6b
PRX Prosus
12.4x1.9%€94.7b
JD JD.com
10.8x8.4%US$51.7b
AHLAD Alibaba Group Holding
15.9x14.9%€186.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AHLAD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AHLAD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies24PE01632486480+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AHLAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AHLAD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AHLAD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.9x
Fair PE Ratio33.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AHLAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AHLAD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€79.50
€116.04
+46.0%
12.2%€138.52€81.92n/a40
Dec ’25€82.80
€114.96
+38.8%
13.0%€139.17€80.97n/a43
Nov ’25€90.10
€111.03
+23.2%
13.5%€136.68€79.50n/a44
Oct ’25€98.20
€98.54
+0.3%
13.1%€122.09€71.92n/a44
Sep ’25€76.20
€97.88
+28.5%
12.2%€118.92€72.91n/a44
Aug ’25€73.10
€97.37
+33.2%
13.1%€124.72€74.09n/a43
Jul ’25€67.20
€98.47
+46.5%
13.3%€125.59€74.32n/a42
Jun ’25€71.80
€97.29
+35.5%
13.3%€124.25€73.53n/a42
May ’25€70.10
€98.15
+40.0%
13.8%€124.79€74.80n/a43
Apr ’25€66.80
€98.44
+47.4%
14.3%€125.84€73.82n/a42
Mar ’25€68.90
€99.85
+44.9%
15.7%€136.22€73.79n/a43
Feb ’25€67.90
€105.59
+55.5%
15.9%€137.99€75.34n/a43
Jan ’25€69.70
€113.66
+63.1%
16.7%€145.69€74.61n/a43
Dec ’24€67.10
€116.92
+74.2%
15.2%€147.38€81.15€82.8043
Nov ’24€77.70
€130.72
+68.2%
13.7%€176.90€93.40€90.1043
Oct ’24€82.50
€132.85
+61.0%
13.3%€175.03€93.67€98.2043
Sep ’24€85.50
€131.23
+53.5%
13.3%€172.60€92.37€76.2044
Aug ’24€91.55
€126.46
+38.1%
14.0%€166.80€84.60€73.1044
Jul ’24€76.40
€126.06
+65.0%
14.4%€164.29€84.04€67.2044
Jun ’24€77.20
€130.56
+69.1%
12.7%€166.84€89.59€71.8044
May ’24€75.80
€132.19
+74.4%
13.6%€198.92€89.83€70.1044
Apr ’24€93.75
€134.19
+43.1%
13.9%€201.73€91.32€66.8043
Mar ’24€84.75
€137.49
+62.2%
15.4%€207.50€68.89€68.9042
Feb ’24€103.30
€134.10
+29.8%
17.2%€202.99€68.71€67.9042
Jan ’24€81.60
€130.43
+59.8%
20.1%€211.05€68.25€69.7042
Dec ’23€82.30
€129.68
+57.6%
20.0%€209.45€67.73€67.1042

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 06:02
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 99 analysts. 50 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zixiao YangArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
James KelleherArgus Research Company