NewRiver REIT (LSE:NRR) - Share price, News & Analysis

NRR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	4/6

NRR Stock Overview

NewRiver REIT plc (‘NewRiver’) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specialising in buying, managing and developing essential retail and leisure assets throughout the UK.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 105.51% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 8.86% is not well covered by earnings

NewRiver REIT Competitors

Shaftesbury

LSE:SHB

UK£2.2b

Supermarket Income REIT

LSE:SUPR

UK£1.6b

Capital & Counties Properties

LSE:CAPC

UK£1.4b

Hammerson

LSE:HMSO

UK£1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for NewRiver REIT
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.93
52 Week High	UK£1.07
52 Week Low	UK£0.70
Beta	1.11
1 Month Change	2.55%
3 Month Change	1.09%
1 Year Change	-6.38%
3 Year Change	-59.70%
5 Year Change	-73.34%
Change since IPO	-63.73%

Shareholder Returns

	NRR	GB REITs	GB Market
7D	6.3%	4.6%	3.1%
1Y	-6.4%	1.9%	-3.2%

Return vs Industry: NRR underperformed the UK REITs industry which returned 1.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NRR underperformed the UK Market which returned -3.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NRR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NRR volatility
NRR Average Weekly Movement	4.9%
REITs Industry Average Movement	3.6%
Market Average Movement	6.2%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	11.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: NRR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NRR's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	56	Allan Lockhart	https://www.nrr.co.uk

NewRiver REIT plc (‘NewRiver’) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specialising in buying, managing and developing essential retail and leisure assets throughout the UK. Our £1.1 billion portfolio covers 9 million sq ft and comprises 33 community shopping centres, 24 conveniently located retail parks and 700 community pubs. We hand-picked our assets to deliberately focus on occupiers providing essential goods and services, and avoid structurally challenged sub-sectors such as department stores, mid-market fashion and casual dining.

NewRiver REIT Fundamentals Summary

How do NewRiver REIT's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NRR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£283.53m
Earnings (TTM)	-UK£87.80m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£88.20m

3.2x

P/S Ratio

-3.2x

P/E Ratio

Is NRR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NRR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£88.20m
Cost of Revenue	UK£41.50m
Gross Profit	UK£46.70m
Other Expenses	UK£134.50m
Earnings	-UK£87.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Jun 07, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.28
Gross Margin	52.95%
Net Profit Margin	-99.55%
Debt/Equity Ratio	73.6%

How did NRR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.9%

Current Dividend Yield

17%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is NewRiver REIT undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

0.71x

Price to Book (PB) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NRR (£0.93) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NRR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NRR is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK REITs industry average.

PE vs Market: NRR is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NRR's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NRR is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.7x) compared to the GB REITs industry average (0.9x).

Future Growth

How is NewRiver REIT forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

105.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NRR is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NRR is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NRR's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NRR's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NRR's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.3% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NRR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has NewRiver REIT performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-63.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NRR is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NRR is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NRR is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 63.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NRR's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NRR is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the REITs industry (129.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: NRR has a negative Return on Equity (-21.84%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is NewRiver REIT's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NRR's short term assets (£69.4M) exceed its short term liabilities (£42.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: NRR's short term assets (£69.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£374.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NRR's net debt to equity ratio (65%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NRR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 60.7% to 73.6% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable NRR has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: NRR is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, even with free cash flow being positive and shrinking by 15.3% per year.

Dividend

What is NewRiver REIT current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

8.86%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NRR's dividend (8.86%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.8%).

High Dividend: NRR's dividend (8.86%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (4.84%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NRR's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NRR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (16.7%), NRR's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (114.3%), NRR's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Real Estate industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Allan Lockhart (56 yo)

13.33yrs

Tenure

UK£637,339

Compensation

Mr. Allan Lockhart serves as the Chief Executive Officer of NewRiver REIT plc since May 1, 2018 and serves as its Director since November 19, 2010. Mr. Lockhart Founded NewRiver REIT plc in 2009. He served...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Allan's total compensation ($USD794.70K) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.01M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Allan's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NRR's management team is considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NRR's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NRR insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/17 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/03/31