Stock Analysis

Custodian Property Income REIT (LON:CREI) shareholders have lost 21% over 3 years, earnings decline likely the culprit

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Custodian Property Income REIT plc (LON:CREI) shareholders, since the share price is down 35% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 3.2%. On top of that, the share price is down 11% in the last week. However, this move may have been influenced by the broader market, which fell 9.8% in that time.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Custodian Property Income REIT became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. We like that Custodian Property Income REIT has actually grown its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:CREI Earnings and Revenue Growth April 8th 2025

We know that Custodian Property Income REIT has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Custodian Property Income REIT will earn in the future (free profit forecasts) .

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Custodian Property Income REIT, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Custodian Property Income REIT shareholders are down 9.0% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.1% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Custodian Property Income REIT better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Custodian Property Income REIT (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About LSE:CREI

Custodian Property Income REIT

A UK real estate investment trust, which listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange on 26 March 2014.

Undervalued second-rate dividend payer.

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