Stock Analysis

Is Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) A Risky Investment?

AIM:APH
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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Alliance Pharma plc (LON:APH) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Alliance Pharma

How Much Debt Does Alliance Pharma Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Alliance Pharma had debt of UK£113.6m at the end of December 2023, a reduction from UK£133.7m over a year. On the flip side, it has UK£22.4m in cash leading to net debt of about UK£91.2m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
AIM:APH Debt to Equity History June 21st 2024

How Healthy Is Alliance Pharma's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Alliance Pharma had liabilities of UK£40.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£156.5m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of UK£22.4m as well as receivables valued at UK£54.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£119.9m.

Alliance Pharma has a market capitalization of UK£218.9m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Alliance Pharma has net debt worth 1.9 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.1 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. It is well worth noting that Alliance Pharma's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 44% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Alliance Pharma's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Alliance Pharma produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 79% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Happily, Alliance Pharma's impressive EBIT growth rate implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But truth be told we feel its interest cover does undermine this impression a bit. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Alliance Pharma takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Alliance Pharma is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alliance Pharma is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alliance Pharma is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com