Fresnillo plc

LSE:FRES Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.5b

Fresnillo Valuation

Is FRES undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FRES when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FRES (£6.16) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£2.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FRES is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FRES?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FRES key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.1x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FRES vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.8x
JLP Jubilee Metals Group
14.8x60.0%UK£198.4m
SLP Sylvania Platinum
13.5x33.1%UK£165.1m
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.7b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.1b
FRES Fresnillo
25.1x26.4%UK£4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FRES is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the peer average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.9%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FRES is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FRES's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FRES PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.1x
Fair PE Ratio27.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FRES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FRES forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£6.16
UK£7.07
+14.7%
20.6%UK£10.98UK£5.57n/a12
Jul ’25UK£5.63
UK£7.05
+25.3%
21.7%UK£11.16UK£5.60n/a12
Jun ’25UK£6.20
UK£6.97
+12.5%
22.2%UK£11.11UK£5.39n/a12
May ’25UK£5.63
UK£6.61
+17.6%
24.1%UK£11.29UK£4.88n/a12
Apr ’25UK£4.70
UK£5.93
+26.1%
32.0%UK£11.46UK£3.84n/a12
Mar ’25UK£4.64
UK£6.13
+32.3%
29.8%UK£10.92UK£3.82n/a12
Feb ’25UK£5.22
UK£6.28
+20.4%
29.9%UK£10.88UK£3.81n/a12
Jan ’25UK£5.94
UK£6.67
+12.2%
25.4%UK£10.90UK£3.66n/a12
Dec ’24UK£5.93
UK£6.65
+12.1%
25.9%UK£11.00UK£3.69n/a12
Nov ’24UK£5.44
UK£6.78
+24.5%
27.6%UK£11.33UK£3.38n/a12
Oct ’24UK£5.51
UK£7.20
+30.7%
26.2%UK£11.88UK£3.46n/a12
Sep ’24UK£5.69
UK£6.93
+21.7%
24.7%UK£11.45UK£3.33n/a14
Aug ’24UK£5.91
UK£7.21
+22.0%
22.2%UK£11.43UK£5.27n/a14
Jul ’24UK£6.10
UK£7.70
+26.2%
20.7%UK£11.85UK£5.98UK£5.6314
Jun ’24UK£6.77
UK£7.87
+16.2%
20.1%UK£12.01UK£6.06UK£6.2014
May ’24UK£7.11
UK£7.80
+9.7%
20.6%UK£11.95UK£5.88UK£5.6314
Apr ’24UK£7.46
UK£7.86
+5.4%
19.6%UK£11.68UK£5.96UK£4.7014
Mar ’24UK£7.78
UK£8.76
+12.5%
14.7%UK£11.95UK£7.18UK£4.6415
Feb ’24UK£8.10
UK£8.65
+6.8%
14.8%UK£11.83UK£7.00UK£5.2215
Jan ’24UK£9.02
UK£8.43
-6.5%
17.7%UK£11.11UK£6.21UK£5.9416
Dec ’23UK£9.03
UK£8.17
-9.5%
20.2%UK£12.80UK£6.25UK£5.9316
Nov ’23UK£7.32
UK£8.42
+14.9%
19.2%UK£12.92UK£6.57UK£5.4416
Oct ’23UK£7.69
UK£8.94
+16.2%
19.8%UK£13.76UK£6.68UK£5.5116
Sep ’23UK£6.58
UK£8.64
+31.4%
21.1%UK£13.57UK£6.07UK£5.6916
Aug ’23UK£7.28
UK£8.66
+18.9%
19.0%UK£13.02UK£6.13UK£5.9116
Jul ’23UK£7.57
UK£9.25
+22.1%
13.8%UK£12.45UK£7.80UK£6.1015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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