Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Fresnillo plc (LON:FRES) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Fresnillo
What Is Fresnillo's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2021 Fresnillo had debt of US$1.25b, up from US$825.1m in one year. However, it does have US$1.20b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$42.3m.
How Strong Is Fresnillo's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Fresnillo had liabilities of US$429.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.69b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.20b in cash and US$504.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$412.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Of course, Fresnillo has a market capitalization of US$8.90b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Carrying virtually no net debt, Fresnillo has a very light debt load indeed.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Fresnillo has very little debt (net of cash), and boasts a debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.028 and EBIT of 15.2 times the interest expense. Indeed relative to its earnings its debt load seems light as a feather. Even more impressive was the fact that Fresnillo grew its EBIT by 196% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Fresnillo's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Fresnillo recorded free cash flow of 34% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Happily, Fresnillo's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. Zooming out, Fresnillo seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Fresnillo , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts
Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.
• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
• High growth Tech and AI Companies
Or build your own from over 50 metrics.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:FRES
Fresnillo
Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico.
Flawless balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.