Is Anglo American (LON:AAL) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 18, 2021
LSE:AAL
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Anglo American plc (LON:AAL) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Anglo American

What Is Anglo American's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Anglo American had US$12.2b of debt in June 2021, down from US$13.4b, one year before. However, it does have US$11.0b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.20b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
LSE:AAL Debt to Equity History December 18th 2021

How Healthy Is Anglo American's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Anglo American had liabilities of US$10.9b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$20.5b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$11.0b in cash and US$4.64b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$15.8b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Anglo American is worth a massive US$47.6b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

With debt at a measly 0.068 times EBITDA and EBIT covering interest a whopping 45.0 times, it's clear that Anglo American is not a desperate borrower. So relative to past earnings, the debt load seems trivial. Even more impressive was the fact that Anglo American grew its EBIT by 231% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Anglo American can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Anglo American recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

The good news is that Anglo American's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Anglo American's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Anglo American (including 1 which is significant) .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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