Centerra Gold Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 0UP5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

0UP5 (CA$8.33) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$6.26)

Is 0UP5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0UP5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0UP5 (CA$8.33) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$6.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0UP5 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0UP5?

Key metric: As 0UP5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0UP5. This is calculated by dividing 0UP5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0UP5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	12.7x
Earnings	US$104.12m
Market Cap	US$1.32b

0UP5 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2x
PEG Ratio	-94.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0UP5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0UP5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22x
HOC Hochschild Mining	46.9x	52.9%	UK£1.1b
CEY Centamin	25.5x	21.7%	UK£1.7b
PAF Pan African Resources	11.2x	27.2%	UK£709.1m
ALTN AltynGold	4.4x	n/a	UK£57.7m
0UP5 Centerra Gold	12.7x	-0.1%	CA$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0UP5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (22x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0UP5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
ENPL En+ Group International	2.2x	8.0%	US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel	0.8x	n/a	US$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ	0.4x	n/a	US$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration	0.9x	-60.3%	US$126.89m

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0UP5 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0UP5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0UP5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 0UP5's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0UP5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	CA$12.43 0%	10.6%	CA$14.05	CA$9.00	n/a	9
Nov ’25	CA$9.23	CA$12.87 +39.4%	8.0%	CA$14.03	CA$10.26	n/a	10
Oct ’25	CA$10.16	CA$12.56 +23.6%	8.2%	CA$14.03	CA$10.14	n/a	10
Sep ’25	n/a	CA$11.99 0%	10.2%	CA$13.27	CA$8.97	n/a	10
Aug ’25	CA$8.86	CA$12.30 +38.9%	10.5%	CA$14.03	CA$9.14	n/a	10
Jul ’25	n/a	CA$11.90 0%	10.9%	CA$13.85	CA$9.00	n/a	10
Jun ’25	n/a	CA$11.74 0%	11.6%	CA$13.73	CA$8.64	n/a	10
May ’25	CA$8.38	CA$11.33 +35.2%	11.4%	CA$13.85	CA$8.50	n/a	10
Apr ’25	n/a	CA$10.35 0%	11.5%	CA$11.78	CA$7.57	n/a	10
Mar ’25	CA$6.85	CA$10.39 +51.7%	12.1%	CA$11.82	CA$7.58	n/a	10
Feb ’25	n/a	CA$10.77 0%	12.3%	CA$11.96	CA$7.57	n/a	9
Jan ’25	CA$7.86	CA$10.53 +34.0%	11.6%	CA$11.66	CA$7.27	n/a	9
Dec ’24	n/a	CA$10.60 0%	13.3%	CA$11.98	CA$7.47	n/a	9
Nov ’24	n/a	CA$10.69 0%	11.3%	CA$11.99	CA$8.40	CA$9.23	8
Oct ’24	CA$6.64	CA$11.08 +67.1%	11.3%	CA$12.58	CA$8.38	CA$10.16	8
Sep ’24	n/a	CA$10.78 0%	12.4%	CA$12.73	CA$8.35	n/a	9
Aug ’24	n/a	CA$10.52 0%	13.1%	CA$12.49	CA$8.10	CA$8.86	9
Jul ’24	n/a	CA$10.40 0%	14.2%	CA$12.32	CA$7.20	n/a	9
Jun ’24	CA$8.10	CA$10.15 +25.3%	15.2%	CA$12.37	CA$7.23	n/a	9
May ’24	n/a	CA$11.01 0%	14.0%	CA$13.24	CA$7.56	CA$8.38	9
Apr ’24	n/a	CA$9.75 0%	16.7%	CA$12.48	CA$6.29	n/a	9
Mar ’24	n/a	CA$9.80 0%	16.5%	CA$12.48	CA$6.29	CA$6.85	9
Feb ’24	CA$8.47	CA$8.99 +6.0%	15.9%	CA$11.38	CA$6.23	n/a	9
Jan ’24	n/a	CA$9.19 0%	25.5%	CA$15.20	CA$6.77	CA$7.86	10
Dec ’23	CA$7.33	CA$9.29 +26.8%	24.8%	CA$15.23	CA$6.85	n/a	10
Nov ’23	CA$6.49	CA$9.37 +44.4%	25.9%	CA$15.29	CA$6.92	n/a	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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