Alcoa Corporation

LSE:0HCB Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.7b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 0HCB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 0HCB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 0HCB ($63.58) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($219.84)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 0HCB is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0HCB?

Key metric: As 0HCB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0HCB. This is calculated by dividing 0HCB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0HCB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.8x
EarningsUS$1.13b
Market CapUS$16.69b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0HCB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0HCB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average47.5x
ANTO Antofagasta
42.9x12.91%UK£34.7b
FRES Fresnillo
89x43.56%UK£30.1b
HOC Hochschild Mining
31.7x29.80%UK£3.5b
PAF Pan African Resources
26.7x31.32%UK£2.8b
0HCB Alcoa
14.8x-4.58%US$16.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the peer average (47.5x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0HCB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.04%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
POG Petropavlovsk
2.5x12.47%US$56.91m
0HCB 14.8xIndustry Avg. 20.4xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0HCB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0HCB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.8x
Fair PE Ratio19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0HCB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$63.58
US$53.83
-15.33%
25.22%US$75.00US$33.00n/a12
Jan ’27US$53.12
US$46.92
-11.68%
14.65%US$58.00US$33.00n/a12
Dec ’26US$41.83
US$39.96
-4.48%
8.05%US$44.00US$33.00n/a12
Nov ’26US$36.76
US$39.63
+7.79%
10.97%US$45.00US$28.00n/a12
Oct ’26US$33.68
US$36.00
+6.89%
15.21%US$45.00US$27.00n/a11
Sep ’26US$32.16
US$33.55
+4.31%
14.84%US$42.00US$27.00n/a11
Aug ’26US$28.36
US$33.55
+18.29%
14.84%US$42.00US$27.00n/a11
Jul ’26US$30.27
US$37.06
+22.44%
20.70%US$52.00US$26.00n/a13
Jun ’26US$26.80
US$36.62
+36.64%
23.24%US$52.00US$25.00n/a13
May ’26US$24.57
US$36.62
+49.07%
23.24%US$52.00US$25.00n/a13
Apr ’26US$29.70
US$46.97
+58.15%
10.85%US$58.00US$40.00n/a13
Mar ’26US$33.22
US$48.04
+44.64%
11.13%US$58.00US$40.00n/a13
Feb ’26US$35.60
US$48.04
+34.95%
11.13%US$58.00US$40.00n/a13
Jan ’26US$37.82
US$48.82
+29.09%
11.90%US$58.00US$38.00US$53.1213
Dec ’25US$46.43
US$47.43
+2.16%
12.13%US$58.00US$38.50US$41.8313
Nov ’25US$40.43
US$46.97
+16.18%
10.83%US$55.00US$38.50US$36.7613
Oct ’25US$39.48
US$44.47
+12.64%
14.36%US$55.00US$36.00US$33.6812
Sep ’25US$31.87
US$44.56
+39.82%
13.71%US$55.00US$37.00US$32.1610
Aug ’25US$31.26
US$44.16
+41.27%
15.02%US$55.00US$34.00US$28.3610
Jul ’25US$40.23
US$40.75
+1.29%
21.47%US$52.00US$25.00US$30.2711
Jun ’25US$43.93
US$38.53
-12.30%
20.79%US$52.00US$25.00US$26.8011
May ’25US$34.07
US$36.07
+5.87%
16.49%US$48.00US$25.00US$24.5712
Apr ’25US$33.82
US$30.60
-9.52%
20.94%US$45.00US$22.00US$29.7012
Mar ’25US$27.59
US$30.41
+10.22%
20.83%US$45.00US$22.00US$33.2212
Feb ’25US$29.57
US$31.36
+6.05%
17.78%US$45.00US$23.00US$35.6013
Jan ’25US$34.26
US$31.14
-9.11%
19.49%US$45.00US$23.00US$37.8212
US$53.59
Fair Value
18.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/22 22:05
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/22 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Paretosh MisraBerenberg