Alcoa Corporation

LSE:0HCB Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.7b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 0HCB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0HCB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0HCB ($45.98) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($10.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0HCB is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0HCB?

Key metric: As 0HCB is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 0HCB. This is calculated by dividing 0HCB's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 0HCB's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesUS$11.00b
Market CapUS$11.75b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 0HCB's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 0HCB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
ANTO Antofagasta
3.2x8.8%UK£16.4b
FRES Fresnillo
2.1x3.9%UK£4.8b
AAL Anglo American
1.2x2.3%UK£28.6b
SMDS DS Smith
1.2x3.3%UK£8.2b
0HCB Alcoa
1.1x1.0%US$11.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 0HCB's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GLEN Glencore
0.3x-0.8%US$58.01b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.3xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.1x-8.5%US$1.42b
PDL Petra Diamonds
0.2x8.5%US$81.28m
0HCB 1.1xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies14PS01.22.43.64.86+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0HCB's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0HCB PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 0HCB is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0HCB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$45.98
US$46.97
+2.2%
10.8%US$55.00US$38.50n/a13
Nov ’25US$40.43
US$46.97
+16.2%
10.8%US$55.00US$38.50n/a13
Oct ’25US$39.48
US$44.47
+12.6%
14.4%US$55.00US$36.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$31.87
US$44.56
+39.8%
13.7%US$55.00US$37.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$31.26
US$44.16
+41.3%
15.0%US$55.00US$34.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$40.23
US$40.75
+1.3%
21.5%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$43.93
US$38.53
-12.3%
20.8%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
May ’25US$34.07
US$36.07
+5.9%
16.5%US$48.00US$25.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$33.82
US$30.60
-9.5%
20.9%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$27.59
US$30.41
+10.2%
20.8%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$29.57
US$31.36
+6.1%
17.8%US$45.00US$23.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$34.26
US$30.81
-10.1%
18.4%US$45.00US$23.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$27.75
US$30.85
+11.2%
20.8%US$45.00US$23.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$24.72
US$30.58
+23.7%
21.6%US$45.00US$23.00US$40.4311
Oct ’24US$29.20
US$37.04
+26.9%
24.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$39.4810
Sep ’24US$31.00
US$38.08
+22.8%
20.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$31.8712
Aug ’24US$35.47
US$38.74
+9.2%
20.0%US$55.00US$25.00US$31.2612
Jul ’24US$33.62
US$45.63
+35.7%
18.3%US$60.00US$33.00US$40.2312
Jun ’24US$32.84
US$49.63
+51.1%
16.4%US$65.00US$37.00US$43.9312
May ’24US$37.11
US$50.40
+35.8%
14.3%US$65.00US$40.00US$34.0710
Apr ’24US$42.37
US$54.20
+27.9%
14.1%US$65.00US$44.00US$33.8210
Mar ’24US$52.33
US$55.00
+5.1%
13.0%US$65.00US$42.00US$27.5910
Feb ’24US$52.27
US$54.00
+3.3%
11.7%US$65.00US$42.00US$29.5710
Jan ’24US$44.83
US$49.20
+9.7%
11.7%US$57.00US$41.00US$34.2610
Dec ’23US$49.09
US$46.80
-4.7%
16.3%US$60.00US$35.00US$27.7510
Nov ’23US$40.61
US$45.70
+12.5%
15.3%US$60.00US$35.00US$24.7210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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