Alcoa Corporation

LSE:0HCB Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.3b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 0HCB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0HCB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$212.20
Fair Value
82.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 0HCB ($36.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($212.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0HCB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0HCB?

Key metric: As 0HCB is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 0HCB. This is calculated by dividing 0HCB's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 0HCB's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.8x
SalesUS$11.90b
Market CapUS$9.33b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 0HCB's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 0HCB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2x
FRES Fresnillo
2.5x4.2%UK£5.6b
ANTO Antofagasta
3.5x8.9%UK£17.8b
SMDS DS Smith
1.2x3.4%UK£8.1b
MNDI Mondi
0.9x6.0%UK£5.6b
0HCB Alcoa
0.8x2.2%US$9.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 0HCB's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

13 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GLEN Glencore
0.2x-0.1%US$54.03b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.3xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.1x-8.5%US$1.42b
PDL Petra Diamonds
0.2x3.1%US$75.33m
0HCB 0.8xIndustry Avg. 1.9xNo. of Companies13PS01.22.43.64.86+
13 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0HCB's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0HCB PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.8x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 0HCB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0HCB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$36.60
US$48.04
+31.3%
11.1%US$58.00US$40.00n/a13
Feb ’26US$35.60
US$48.04
+34.9%
11.1%US$58.00US$40.00n/a13
Jan ’26US$37.82
US$48.82
+29.1%
11.9%US$58.00US$38.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$46.43
US$47.43
+2.2%
12.1%US$58.00US$38.50n/a13
Nov ’25US$40.43
US$46.97
+16.2%
10.8%US$55.00US$38.50n/a13
Oct ’25US$39.48
US$44.47
+12.6%
14.4%US$55.00US$36.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$31.87
US$44.56
+39.8%
13.7%US$55.00US$37.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$31.26
US$44.16
+41.3%
15.0%US$55.00US$34.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$40.23
US$40.75
+1.3%
21.5%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$43.93
US$38.53
-12.3%
20.8%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
May ’25US$34.07
US$36.07
+5.9%
16.5%US$48.00US$25.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$33.82
US$30.60
-9.5%
20.9%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$27.59
US$30.41
+10.2%
20.8%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$29.57
US$31.36
+6.1%
17.8%US$45.00US$23.00US$35.6013
Jan ’25US$34.26
US$30.81
-10.1%
18.4%US$45.00US$23.00US$37.8212
Dec ’24US$27.75
US$30.85
+11.2%
20.8%US$45.00US$23.00US$46.4311
Nov ’24US$24.72
US$30.58
+23.7%
21.6%US$45.00US$23.00US$40.4311
Oct ’24US$29.20
US$37.04
+26.9%
24.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$39.4810
Sep ’24US$31.00
US$38.08
+22.8%
20.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$31.8712
Aug ’24US$35.47
US$38.74
+9.2%
20.0%US$55.00US$25.00US$31.2612
Jul ’24US$33.62
US$45.63
+35.7%
18.3%US$60.00US$33.00US$40.2312
Jun ’24US$32.84
US$49.63
+51.1%
16.4%US$65.00US$37.00US$43.9312
May ’24US$37.11
US$50.40
+35.8%
14.3%US$65.00US$40.00US$34.0710
Apr ’24US$42.37
US$54.20
+27.9%
14.1%US$65.00US$44.00US$33.8210
Mar ’24US$52.33
US$55.00
+5.1%
13.0%US$65.00US$42.00US$27.5910
Feb ’24US$52.27
US$54.00
+3.3%
11.7%US$65.00US$42.00US$29.5710
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
US$48.68
Fair Value
24.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/08 19:15
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 26 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Paretosh MisraBerenberg