DS Smith Plc

BATS-CHIXE:SMDSL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£8.1b

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DS Smith Valuation

Is SMDSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMDSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£5.96
Fair Value
1.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SMDSL (£5.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMDSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMDSL?

Key metric: As SMDSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SMDSL. This is calculated by dividing SMDSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SMDSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio36x
EarningsUK£224.00m
Market CapUK£8.07b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMDSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMDSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
MNDI Mondi
17x14.5%UK£5.6b
FRES Fresnillo
28.2x32.2%UK£5.6b
CRDA Croda International
26.4x14.8%UK£4.3b
ANTO Antofagasta
28.9x16.9%UK£17.8b
SMDSL DS Smith
36x20.1%UK£8.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMDSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMDSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies8PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMDSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMDSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMDSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio36x
Fair PE Ratio21.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMDSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMDSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
UK£5.39
0%
16.0%UK£6.60UK£3.60n/a9
Feb ’26UK£5.88
UK£5.39
-8.3%
16.0%UK£6.60UK£3.60n/a9
Jan ’26UK£5.44
UK£5.34
-1.9%
15.2%UK£6.60UK£3.60n/a9
Dec ’25UK£5.85
UK£5.07
-13.3%
15.7%UK£5.83UK£3.60n/a9
Nov ’25UK£5.38
UK£4.54
-15.5%
11.3%UK£5.50UK£3.60n/a9
Oct ’25UK£4.64
UK£4.37
-5.8%
9.3%UK£4.87UK£3.60n/a9
Sep ’25UK£4.70
UK£4.22
-10.3%
8.3%UK£4.75UK£3.60n/a8
Aug ’25UK£4.56
UK£4.00
-12.3%
7.9%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jul ’25UK£4.21
UK£3.94
-6.2%
7.4%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jun ’25UK£3.81
UK£3.99
+4.6%
7.2%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
May ’25UK£3.54
UK£4.01
+13.1%
7.3%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Apr ’25UK£4.00
UK£3.78
-5.6%
9.8%UK£4.20UK£3.10n/a6
Mar ’25UK£3.27
UK£3.76
+15.0%
10.7%UK£4.20UK£3.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£2.77
UK£3.62
+30.6%
8.4%UK£4.00UK£3.00UK£5.8810
Jan ’25UK£3.08
UK£3.64
+18.2%
8.1%UK£4.00UK£3.00UK£5.4411
Dec ’24UK£2.96
UK£3.52
+19.0%
12.8%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£5.8511
Nov ’24UK£2.84
UK£3.54
+24.8%
11.5%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£5.3811
Oct ’24UK£2.89
UK£3.53
+22.4%
11.6%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£4.6411
Sep ’24UK£3.12
UK£3.56
+14.1%
10.1%UK£4.00UK£2.90UK£4.7012
Aug ’24UK£3.08
UK£3.68
+19.5%
11.3%UK£4.50UK£2.90UK£4.5612
Jul ’24UK£2.73
UK£3.83
+40.5%
14.9%UK£5.00UK£2.90UK£4.2113
Jun ’24UK£3.06
UK£3.94
+28.7%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.8112
May ’24UK£3.10
UK£3.94
+27.2%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.5412
Apr ’24UK£3.14
UK£3.99
+26.9%
13.1%UK£5.00UK£3.10UK£4.0011
Mar ’24UK£3.43
UK£4.08
+19.1%
10.9%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£3.2711
Feb ’24UK£3.58
UK£4.03
+12.5%
11.5%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£2.7711
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
UK£5.43
Fair Value
8.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/03 22:05
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

DS Smith Plc is covered by 27 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pallav MittalBarclays
Jane SparrowBarclays
Eoghan ReidBerenberg