DS Smith Plc

BATS-CHIXE:SMDSL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£8.2b

DS Smith Valuation

Is SMDSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMDSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMDSL (£5.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£6.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMDSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMDSL?

Key metric: As SMDSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SMDSL. This is calculated by dividing SMDSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SMDSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.3x
EarningsUK£385.00m
Market CapUK£8.19b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMDSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMDSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.3x
MNDI Mondi
16.2x15.8%UK£5.3b
FRES Fresnillo
24.3x33.0%UK£4.8b
CRDA Croda International
30.4x15.1%UK£4.9b
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.7b
SMDSL DS Smith
21.3x8.8%UK£8.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMDSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the peer average (23.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMDSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMDSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMDSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMDSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.3x
Fair PE Ratio18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMDSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMDSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£5.98
UK£4.95
-17.1%
15.1%UK£5.80UK£3.60n/a9
Nov ’25UK£5.38
UK£4.54
-15.5%
11.3%UK£5.50UK£3.60n/a9
Oct ’25UK£4.64
UK£4.37
-5.8%
9.3%UK£4.87UK£3.60n/a9
Sep ’25UK£4.70
UK£4.22
-10.3%
8.3%UK£4.75UK£3.60n/a8
Aug ’25UK£4.56
UK£4.00
-12.3%
7.9%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jul ’25UK£4.21
UK£3.94
-6.2%
7.4%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Jun ’25UK£3.81
UK£3.99
+4.6%
7.2%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
May ’25UK£3.54
UK£4.01
+13.1%
7.3%UK£4.40UK£3.42n/a8
Apr ’25UK£4.00
UK£3.78
-5.6%
9.8%UK£4.20UK£3.10n/a6
Mar ’25UK£3.27
UK£3.76
+15.0%
10.7%UK£4.20UK£3.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£2.77
UK£3.62
+30.6%
8.4%UK£4.00UK£3.00n/a10
Jan ’25UK£3.08
UK£3.64
+18.2%
8.1%UK£4.00UK£3.00n/a11
Dec ’24UK£2.96
UK£3.52
+19.0%
12.8%UK£4.00UK£2.70n/a11
Nov ’24UK£2.84
UK£3.54
+24.8%
11.5%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£5.3811
Oct ’24UK£2.89
UK£3.53
+22.4%
11.6%UK£4.00UK£2.70UK£4.6411
Sep ’24UK£3.12
UK£3.56
+14.1%
10.1%UK£4.00UK£2.90UK£4.7012
Aug ’24UK£3.08
UK£3.68
+19.5%
11.3%UK£4.50UK£2.90UK£4.5612
Jul ’24UK£2.73
UK£3.83
+40.5%
14.9%UK£5.00UK£2.90UK£4.2113
Jun ’24UK£3.06
UK£3.94
+28.7%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.8112
May ’24UK£3.10
UK£3.94
+27.2%
13.4%UK£5.00UK£3.20UK£3.5412
Apr ’24UK£3.14
UK£3.99
+26.9%
13.1%UK£5.00UK£3.10UK£4.0011
Mar ’24UK£3.43
UK£4.08
+19.1%
10.9%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£3.2711
Feb ’24UK£3.58
UK£4.03
+12.5%
11.5%UK£5.00UK£3.40UK£2.7711
Jan ’24UK£3.22
UK£3.94
+22.5%
13.3%UK£5.00UK£3.10UK£3.0810
Dec ’23UK£3.02
UK£3.67
+21.6%
15.1%UK£5.00UK£2.80UK£2.9611
Nov ’23UK£2.92
UK£3.70
+26.9%
15.0%UK£5.00UK£2.80UK£2.8411

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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