Stock Analysis

In the wake of Tullow Oil plc's (LON:TLW) latest UK£34m market cap drop, institutional owners may be forced to take severe actions

Published
LSE:TLW

Key Insights

  • Significantly high institutional ownership implies Tullow Oil's stock price is sensitive to their trading actions
  • The top 10 shareholders own 52% of the company
  • Insiders have bought recently

If you want to know who really controls Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. With 61% stake, institutions possess the maximum shares in the company. In other words, the group stands to gain the most (or lose the most) from their investment into the company.

And so it follows that institutional investors was the group most impacted after the company's market cap fell to UK£309m last week after a 10% drop in the share price. The recent loss, which adds to a one-year loss of 36% for stockholders, may not sit well with this group of investors. Often called “market movers", institutions wield significant power in influencing the price dynamics of any stock. As a result, if the downtrend continues, institutions may face pressures to sell Tullow Oil, which might have negative implications on individual investors.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Tullow Oil.

See our latest analysis for Tullow Oil

LSE:TLW Ownership Breakdown January 29th 2025

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Tullow Oil?

Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing.

We can see that Tullow Oil does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. When multiple institutions own a stock, there's always a risk that they are in a 'crowded trade'. When such a trade goes wrong, multiple parties may compete to sell stock fast. This risk is higher in a company without a history of growth. You can see Tullow Oil's historic earnings and revenue below, but keep in mind there's always more to the story.

LSE:TLW Earnings and Revenue Growth January 29th 2025

Investors should note that institutions actually own more than half the company, so they can collectively wield significant power. We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Tullow Oil. azValor Asset Management SGIIC, S.A.U. is currently the largest shareholder, with 15% of shares outstanding. With 7.2% and 6.6% of the shares outstanding respectively, Samuel Dossou-Aworet and RWC Partners Limited are the second and third largest shareholders.

We did some more digging and found that 10 of the top shareholders account for roughly 52% of the register, implying that along with larger shareholders, there are a few smaller shareholders, thereby balancing out each others interests somewhat.

Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.

Insider Ownership Of Tullow Oil

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.

Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.

Shareholders would probably be interested to learn that insiders own shares in Tullow Oil plc. As individuals, the insiders collectively own UK£28m worth of the UK£309m company. It is good to see some investment by insiders, but it might be worth checking if those insiders have been buying.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 16% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.

Private Company Ownership

We can see that Private Companies own 14%, of the shares on issue. It might be worth looking deeper into this. If related parties, such as insiders, have an interest in one of these private companies, that should be disclosed in the annual report. Private companies may also have a strategic interest in the company.

Next Steps:

It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company. But to understand Tullow Oil better, we need to consider many other factors. Be aware that Tullow Oil is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are concerning...

But ultimately it is the future, not the past, that will determine how well the owners of this business will do. Therefore we think it advisable to take a look at this free report showing whether analysts are predicting a brighter future.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Tullow Oil might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.