Potential Upside For Shell plc (LON:SHEL) Not Without Risk

Shell plc's (LON:SHEL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.2x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 16x and even P/E's above 26x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

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Shell could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Shell

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How Is Shell's Growth Trending?

Shell's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 18% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 16% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Shell's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Shell's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Shell that we have uncovered.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.