Harbour Energy plc Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Harbour Energy plc (LON:HBR) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to UK£2.34 in the past week. Revenues fell 5.6% short of expectations, at US$2.0b. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with Harbour Energy reporting a statutory loss of US$0.01 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Harbour Energy after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Harbour Energy

After the latest results, the consensus from Harbour Energy's ten analysts is for revenues of US$4.33b in 2023, which would reflect a chunky 9.2% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with Harbour Energy forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.44 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2023. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Harbour Energy after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of UK£3.52, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Harbour Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£4.84 and the most bearish at UK£2.14 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 17% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 31% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 2.7% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Harbour Energy, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Harbour Energy. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although Harbour Energy'sthey are still expected to trail the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Harbour Energy analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Harbour Energy that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.