XPS Pensions Group plc

LSE:XPS Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£618.5m

XPS Pensions Group Valuation

Is XPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of XPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: XPS (£3.03) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (£4.05)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: XPS is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XPS?

Key metric: As XPS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XPS. This is calculated by dividing XPS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XPS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.8x
EarningsUK£25.95m
Market CapUK£618.51m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14x
POLR Polar Capital Holdings
14.9x21.76%UK£582.4m
FSG Foresight Group Holdings
11.2x18.47%UK£435.4m
PINT Pantheon Infrastructure
8.7xn/aUK£524.9m
TAM Tatton Asset Management
21.1x12.22%UK£359.3m
XPS XPS Pensions Group
23.8x14.24%UK£618.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.8x) compared to the peer average (14x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Capital Markets Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CGEO Georgia Capital
2.1xn/aUS$1.45b
BPM B.P. Marsh & Partners
2.3xn/aUS$316.80m
TAVI Tavistock Investments
2.8xn/aUS$22.02m
IX. i(x) Net Zero
0.1xn/aUS$8.94m
XPS 23.8xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.8x) compared to the UK Capital Markets industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.8x
Fair PE Ratio15.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XPS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.03
UK£4.46
+47.54%
5.37%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a10
Mar ’27UK£3.11
UK£4.46
+43.50%
5.37%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a10
Feb ’27UK£3.46
UK£4.46
+28.99%
5.37%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a10
Jan ’27UK£3.39
UK£4.46
+31.65%
5.37%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a10
Dec ’26UK£3.56
UK£4.46
+25.54%
5.37%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a10
Nov ’26UK£3.38
UK£4.52
+33.96%
4.55%UK£4.85UK£4.20n/a8
Oct ’26UK£3.38
UK£4.55
+34.68%
4.68%UK£4.85UK£4.20n/a9
Sep ’26UK£3.47
UK£4.56
+31.38%
5.29%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a8
Aug ’26UK£3.66
UK£4.51
+23.09%
5.90%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a8
Jul ’26UK£3.65
UK£4.46
+22.27%
5.78%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a7
Jun ’26UK£3.97
UK£4.47
+12.51%
5.73%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a6
May ’26UK£3.83
UK£4.47
+16.62%
5.73%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a6
Apr ’26UK£3.80
UK£4.47
+17.65%
5.75%UK£4.85UK£4.10n/a6
Mar ’26UK£3.70
UK£4.37
+17.97%
7.15%UK£4.85UK£3.85UK£3.116
Feb ’26UK£3.48
UK£4.04
+15.95%
5.04%UK£4.35UK£3.70UK£3.466
Jan ’26UK£3.41
UK£4.00
+17.36%
5.18%UK£4.35UK£3.70UK£3.395
Dec ’25UK£3.60
UK£4.00
+11.17%
5.18%UK£4.35UK£3.70UK£3.565
Nov ’25UK£3.58
UK£3.27
-8.55%
6.40%UK£3.55UK£2.90UK£3.385
Oct ’25UK£2.87
UK£3.19
+11.29%
4.98%UK£3.32UK£2.90UK£3.385
Sep ’25UK£3.03
UK£3.19
+5.41%
4.98%UK£3.32UK£2.90UK£3.475
Aug ’25UK£3.18
UK£3.19
+0.44%
4.98%UK£3.32UK£2.90UK£3.665
Jul ’25UK£3.16
UK£3.19
+1.08%
4.98%UK£3.32UK£2.90UK£3.655
Jun ’25UK£2.53
UK£2.88
+13.68%
6.66%UK£3.10UK£2.60UK£3.975
May ’25UK£2.57
UK£2.86
+11.13%
6.00%UK£3.00UK£2.60UK£3.835
Apr ’25UK£2.31
UK£2.62
+13.42%
5.21%UK£2.80UK£2.40UK£3.805
Mar ’25UK£2.34
UK£2.62
+11.97%
5.21%UK£2.80UK£2.40UK£3.705
UK£4.46
Fair Value
32.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/09 01:35
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/09 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

XPS Pensions Group plc is covered by 14 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James FletcherBerenberg
Hal PotterBofA Global Research
null nullCanaccord Genuity