XPS Pensions Group plc

LSE:XPS Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£738.9m

XPS Pensions Group Valuation

Is XPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XPS (£3.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XPS is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XPS?

Key metric: As XPS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XPS. This is calculated by dividing XPS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XPS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.7x
EarningsUK£54.17m
Market CapUK£738.85m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
BPCR BioPharma Credit
9.4xn/aUS$1.0b
FSG Foresight Group Holdings
19.7x29.0%UK£513.1m
IPX Impax Asset Management Group
10.6x2.5%UK£433.8m
TAM Tatton Asset Management
27.2x11.9%UK£425.0m
XPS XPS Pensions Group
13.7x-10.6%UK£738.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Capital Markets Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PNIX Phoenix Digital Assets
1.1xn/aUS$32.32m
IX. i(x) Net Zero
0.1xn/aUS$8.94m
APQ APQ Global
0.4xn/aUS$5.78m
No more companies available in this PE range
XPS 13.7xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies17PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the UK Capital Markets industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XPS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.59
UK£3.86
+7.6%
9.0%UK£4.35UK£3.30n/a5
Nov ’25UK£3.58
UK£3.27
-8.5%
6.4%UK£3.55UK£2.90n/a5
Oct ’25UK£2.87
UK£3.19
+11.3%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Sep ’25UK£3.03
UK£3.19
+5.4%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Aug ’25UK£3.18
UK£3.19
+0.4%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Jul ’25UK£3.16
UK£3.19
+1.1%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Jun ’25UK£2.53
UK£2.88
+13.7%
6.7%UK£3.10UK£2.60n/a5
May ’25UK£2.57
UK£2.86
+11.1%
6.0%UK£3.00UK£2.60n/a5
Apr ’25UK£2.31
UK£2.62
+13.4%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Mar ’25UK£2.34
UK£2.62
+12.0%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Feb ’25UK£2.07
UK£2.62
+26.6%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Jan ’25UK£2.33
UK£2.62
+12.4%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Dec ’24UK£2.30
UK£2.59
+12.6%
7.3%UK£2.80UK£2.25n/a5
Nov ’24UK£2.12
UK£2.49
+17.6%
5.7%UK£2.65UK£2.25UK£3.585
Oct ’24UK£1.95
UK£2.22
+13.9%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£2.875
Sep ’24UK£1.85
UK£2.22
+20.4%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£3.035
Aug ’24UK£1.88
UK£2.22
+18.5%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£3.185
Jul ’24UK£1.75
UK£2.14
+22.8%
9.8%UK£2.51UK£1.90UK£3.165
Jun ’24UK£1.65
UK£2.00
+21.7%
5.4%UK£2.16UK£1.90UK£2.535
May ’24UK£1.63
UK£1.97
+20.8%
8.2%UK£2.16UK£1.75UK£2.576
Apr ’24UK£1.60
UK£1.97
+23.0%
8.2%UK£2.16UK£1.75UK£2.316
Mar ’24UK£1.63
UK£1.84
+12.8%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.345
Feb ’24UK£1.62
UK£1.84
+13.5%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.075
Jan ’24UK£1.39
UK£1.84
+32.2%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.335
Dec ’23UK£1.40
UK£1.84
+31.8%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.305
Nov ’23UK£1.20
UK£1.83
+52.5%
11.8%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.124

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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