Earnings Update: TP ICAP Group PLC (LON:TCAP) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

TP ICAP Group PLC (LON:TCAP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to UK£2.57 in the week after its latest full-year results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at UK£2.2b, statutory earnings beat expectations 4.1%, with TP ICAP Group reporting profits of UK£0.21 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for TP ICAP Group

After the latest results, the five analysts covering TP ICAP Group are now predicting revenues of UK£2.33b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.1% to UK£0.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£2.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.24 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£3.11, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on TP ICAP Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£3.37 and the most bearish at UK£2.55 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that TP ICAP Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect TP ICAP Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TP ICAP Group. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple TP ICAP Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for TP ICAP Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.