Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Paragon Banking Group PLC's (LON:PAG) Full-Year Report

It's been a good week for Paragon Banking Group PLC (LON:PAG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 5.0% to UK£7.88. Paragon Banking Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of UK£496m and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.85, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Paragon Banking Group

Taking into account the latest results, Paragon Banking Group's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be UK£495.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be UK£0.92, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£494.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.94 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£8.45, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Paragon Banking Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£9.40 and the most bearish at UK£6.40 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Paragon Banking Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 13% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Paragon Banking Group's revenues are expected to shrink slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Paragon Banking Group's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Paragon Banking Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Paragon Banking Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.