Results: Ninety One Group Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Ninety One Group (LON:N91) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to UK£1.59 in the week after its latest yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of UK£589m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Ninety One Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£0.18 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Ninety One Group

Following last week's earnings report, Ninety One Group's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be UK£591.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 10% to UK£0.16 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£590.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.16 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£1.83, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ninety One Group at UK£2.15 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ninety One Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ninety One Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ninety One Group following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ninety One Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Ninety One Group (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.