Paragon Banking Group Valuation
Is PAGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of PAGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: PAGL (£7.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£18.03)
Significantly Below Fair Value: PAGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PAGL?
Key metric: As PAGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is PAGL's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 7.4x |
| Earnings | UK£197.90m |
| Market Cap | UK£1.47b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | 34.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does PAGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 15.8x | ||
OSB OSB Group | 3.6x | -3.8% | UK£1.4b |
NBS Nationwide Building Society | 0.9x | n/a | UK£1.2b |
MAB1 Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) | 34.4x | 26.4% | UK£369.8m |
IHP IntegraFin Holdings | 24.4x | 9.5% | UK£1.3b |
PAGL Paragon Banking Group | 7.4x | 0.2% | UK£1.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PAGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does PAGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Diversified Financial Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
NBS Nationwide Building Society | 0.9x | n/a | US$1.51b |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PAGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the UK Diversified Financial industry average (14.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is PAGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 7.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 14x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PAGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | UK£7.28 | UK£8.53 +17.2% | 9.3% | UK£9.70 | UK£6.40 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | UK£6.92 | UK£8.74 +26.4% | 5.2% | UK£9.70 | UK£8.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Oct ’25 | UK£7.77 | UK£8.74 +12.5% | 5.2% | UK£9.70 | UK£8.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Sep ’25 | UK£7.72 | UK£8.74 +13.3% | 5.2% | UK£9.70 | UK£8.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Aug ’25 | UK£7.83 | UK£8.74 +11.7% | 5.2% | UK£9.70 | UK£8.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jul ’25 | UK£7.41 | UK£8.51 +14.8% | 10.0% | UK£9.70 | UK£6.40 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’25 | UK£7.60 | UK£7.81 +2.7% | 10.0% | UK£8.75 | UK£6.40 | n/a | 10 |
| May ’25 | UK£7.09 | UK£7.75 +9.4% | 12.2% | UK£9.25 | UK£6.05 | n/a | 10 |
| Apr ’25 | UK£6.89 | UK£7.75 +12.6% | 12.2% | UK£9.25 | UK£6.05 | n/a | 10 |
| Mar ’25 | UK£6.64 | UK£7.65 +15.2% | 11.8% | UK£9.25 | UK£6.05 | n/a | 12 |
| Feb ’25 | UK£6.52 | UK£7.46 +14.5% | 13.4% | UK£9.25 | UK£5.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’25 | UK£6.99 | UK£7.32 +4.7% | 13.9% | UK£9.25 | UK£5.40 | n/a | 12 |
| Dec ’24 | UK£4.84 | UK£6.83 +41.3% | 13.0% | UK£8.00 | UK£4.70 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’24 | UK£4.45 | UK£7.03 +57.8% | 9.2% | UK£8.00 | UK£5.60 | UK£6.92 | 11 |
| Oct ’24 | UK£4.95 | UK£7.07 +42.8% | 8.7% | UK£8.00 | UK£5.60 | UK£7.77 | 11 |
| Sep ’24 | UK£5.25 | UK£7.07 +34.9% | 8.7% | UK£8.00 | UK£5.60 | UK£7.72 | 11 |
| Aug ’24 | UK£5.22 | UK£7.04 +34.8% | 9.0% | UK£8.00 | UK£5.60 | UK£7.83 | 10 |
| Jul ’24 | UK£5.33 | UK£7.02 +31.9% | 8.6% | UK£8.00 | UK£5.60 | UK£7.41 | 11 |
| Jun ’24 | UK£4.88 | UK£6.85 +40.4% | 8.0% | UK£7.65 | UK£5.40 | UK£7.60 | 11 |
| May ’24 | UK£5.01 | UK£6.85 +36.7% | 8.0% | UK£7.65 | UK£5.40 | UK£7.09 | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | UK£5.21 | UK£6.84 +31.3% | 7.7% | UK£7.65 | UK£5.40 | UK£6.89 | 12 |
| Mar ’24 | UK£5.97 | UK£6.84 +14.6% | 7.7% | UK£7.65 | UK£5.40 | UK£6.64 | 12 |
| Feb ’24 | UK£6.15 | UK£6.84 +11.3% | 7.7% | UK£7.65 | UK£5.40 | UK£6.52 | 12 |
| Jan ’24 | UK£5.67 | UK£6.74 +18.9% | 6.1% | UK£7.35 | UK£5.60 | UK£6.99 | 12 |
| Dec ’23 | UK£4.64 | UK£6.37 +37.2% | 13.6% | UK£7.10 | UK£4.25 | UK£4.84 | 11 |
| Nov ’23 | UK£4.29 | UK£6.37 +48.4% | 13.6% | UK£7.10 | UK£4.25 | UK£4.45 | 11 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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