Mattioli Woods plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for Mattioli Woods plc (LON:MTW) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.1% to UK£6.65. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of UK£108m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 49% to hit UK£0.083 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mattioli Woods

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mattioli Woods' four analysts is for revenues of UK£119.5m in 2023, which would reflect a notable 10% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 237% to UK£0.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£118.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.27 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 8.0% to UK£9.18, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mattioli Woods at UK£9.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£8.90. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2023 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that Mattioli Woods is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Mattioli Woods' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Mattioli Woods going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Mattioli Woods that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.