Trainline Plc

LSE:TRN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Trainline Valuation

Is TRN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TRN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TRN (£3.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TRN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TRN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA23.8x
PEG Ratio2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TRN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TRN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
PPH PPHE Hotel Group
23.1x31.6%UK£505.7m
WTB Whitbread
23.7x18.5%UK£5.7b
OTB On the Beach Group
15.8x22.0%UK£249.2m
HSW Hostelworld Group
12.6x11.7%UK£159.5m
TRN Trainline
49x21.0%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TRN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.3%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.3%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (23.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TRN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TRN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio49x
Fair PE Ratio26.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TRN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.76
UK£4.24
+12.6%
15.2%UK£5.56UK£3.15n/a12
Oct ’25UK£3.27
UK£4.22
+28.9%
14.3%UK£5.30UK£3.15n/a12
Sep ’25UK£3.00
UK£4.10
+36.6%
13.7%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
Aug ’25UK£3.33
UK£4.10
+23.0%
13.7%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
Jul ’25UK£3.21
UK£4.15
+29.5%
12.4%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a11
Jun ’25UK£3.21
UK£4.07
+26.6%
13.9%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
May ’25UK£2.93
UK£3.99
+36.2%
13.0%UK£4.60UK£3.00n/a12
Apr ’25UK£3.70
UK£4.05
+9.2%
11.6%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Mar ’25UK£3.08
UK£3.79
+22.9%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Feb ’25UK£3.22
UK£3.71
+15.3%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Jan ’25UK£3.22
UK£3.63
+12.7%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Dec ’24UK£2.80
UK£3.60
+28.8%
15.4%UK£4.70UK£2.70n/a12
Nov ’24UK£2.63
UK£3.74
+42.4%
17.1%UK£4.80UK£2.70n/a12
Oct ’24UK£2.79
UK£3.69
+32.2%
17.4%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2713
Sep ’24UK£2.30
UK£3.66
+58.8%
18.9%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.0012
Aug ’24UK£2.55
UK£3.70
+45.3%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.3311
Jul ’24UK£2.61
UK£3.70
+41.7%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2111
Jun ’24UK£2.60
UK£3.70
+42.5%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2111
May ’24UK£2.49
UK£3.60
+44.3%
19.0%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£2.9311
Apr ’24UK£2.49
UK£3.60
+44.7%
19.0%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.7011
Mar ’24UK£2.58
UK£3.72
+44.3%
20.8%UK£4.87UK£2.70UK£3.0811
Feb ’24UK£2.83
UK£3.79
+34.3%
18.8%UK£4.87UK£2.80UK£3.2211
Jan ’24UK£2.75
UK£3.85
+40.0%
18.9%UK£5.10UK£2.80UK£3.2211
Dec ’23UK£3.36
UK£3.95
+17.6%
19.2%UK£5.42UK£2.80UK£2.8011
Nov ’23UK£3.45
UK£4.05
+17.3%
19.5%UK£5.42UK£2.80UK£2.6311
Oct ’23UK£3.16
UK£4.10
+29.8%
19.1%UK£5.42UK£2.80UK£2.7911

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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