Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that SSP Group plc (LON:SSPG) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for SSP Group
How Much Debt Does SSP Group Carry?
As you can see below, SSP Group had UKĀ£756.5m of debt, at March 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has UKĀ£364.6m in cash leading to net debt of about UKĀ£391.9m.
How Strong Is SSP Group's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that SSP Group had liabilities of UKĀ£955.3m due within a year, and liabilities of UKĀ£1.37b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of UKĀ£364.6m as well as receivables valued at UKĀ£131.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UKĀ£1.83b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of UKĀ£2.00b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Given net debt is only 1.4 times EBITDA, it is initially surprising to see that SSP Group's EBIT has low interest coverage of 2.0 times. So one way or the other, it's clear the debt levels are not trivial. We also note that SSP Group improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive UKĀ£176m. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if SSP Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, SSP Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
SSP Group's interest cover and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that SSP Group is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for SSP Group (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:SSPG
SSP Group
Operates food and beverage outlets in North America, Europe, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.
High growth potential with proven track record.