When close to half the companies in the United Kingdom have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider J D Wetherspoon plc (LON:JDW) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 22.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
J D Wetherspoon could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for J D Wetherspoon
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, J D Wetherspoon would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 38%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 25% per year as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 15% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that J D Wetherspoon's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that J D Wetherspoon maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
You need to take note of risks, for example - J D Wetherspoon has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on J D Wetherspoon, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
Owns and operates pubs and hotels in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.
Good value with limited growth.
