Did Changing Sentiment Drive GVC Holdings’s (LON:GVC) Share Price Down By 44%?

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market – but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the GVC Holdings PLC (LON:GVC) share price is down 44% in the last year. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 5.6%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 6.1% over three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 22% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results – you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Check out our latest analysis for GVC Holdings

Given that GVC Holdings didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That’s because it’s hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

GVC Holdings grew its revenue by 269% over the last year. That’s a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. Given the revenue growth, the share price drop of 44% seems quite harsh. Our sympathies to shareholders who are now underwater. On the bright side, if this company is moving profits in the right direction, top-line growth like that could be an opportunity. Our brains have evolved to think in linear fashion, so there’s value in learning to recognize exponential growth. We are, in some ways, simply the wisest of the monkeys.

The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.

LSE:GVC Income Statement, March 21st 2019
LSE:GVC Income Statement, March 21st 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for GVC Holdings the TSR over the last year was -40%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in GVC Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 40% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.6%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 14% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

GVC Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.