Stock Analysis

Investors Shouldn't Overlook The Favourable Returns On Capital At Greggs (LON:GRG)

LSE:GRG
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If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Ergo, when we looked at the ROCE trends at Greggs (LON:GRG), we liked what we saw.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Greggs, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.21 = UK£154m ÷ (UK£974m - UK£244m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Thus, Greggs has an ROCE of 21%. That's a fantastic return and not only that, it outpaces the average of 6.8% earned by companies in a similar industry.

See our latest analysis for Greggs

roce
LSE:GRG Return on Capital Employed April 13th 2023

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Greggs compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Greggs here for free.

SWOT Analysis for Greggs

Strength
  • Currently debt free.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Hospitality industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

The Trend Of ROCE

In terms of Greggs' history of ROCE, it's quite impressive. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 21% and the business has deployed 133% more capital into its operations. Returns like this are the envy of most businesses and given it has repeatedly reinvested at these rates, that's even better. If these trends can continue, it wouldn't surprise us if the company became a multi-bagger.

The Bottom Line

In summary, we're delighted to see that Greggs has been compounding returns by reinvesting at consistently high rates of return, as these are common traits of a multi-bagger. And long term investors would be thrilled with the 145% return they've received over the last five years. So while investors seem to be recognizing these promising trends, we still believe the stock deserves further research.

On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Greggs that we think you should be aware of.

High returns are a key ingredient to strong performance, so check out our free list ofstocks earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About LSE:GRG

Greggs

Operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom.

Proven track record with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.

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