Tortilla Mexican Grill plc

AIM:MEX Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£20.1m

Tortilla Mexican Grill Valuation

Is MEX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEX (£0.52) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEX is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEX?

Key metric: As MEX is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MEX. This is calculated by dividing MEX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MEX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesUK£64.48m
Market CapUK£20.11m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MEX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MEX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.6x
PIER Brighton Pier Group
0.4xn/aUK£11.7m
HVTA Heavitree Brewery
1.1xn/aUK£10.4m
VARE Various Eateries
0.6x6.3%UK£29.3m
THW Daniel Thwaites
0.4xn/aUK£48.5m
MEX Tortilla Mexican Grill
0.3x10.3%UK£20.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MEX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TRC Revel Collective
0.05x-3.1%US$8.94m
NGHT Nightcap
0.1xn/aUS$8.62m
COM Comptoir Group
0.1xn/aUS$5.01m
TAST Tasty
0.04x-15.3%US$2.36m
MEX 0.3xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies7PS00.61.21.82.43+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£0.52
UK£0.68
+29.8%
11.1%UK£0.75UK£0.60n/a2
Dec ’25UK£0.48
UK£0.93
+91.9%
2.7%UK£0.95UK£0.90n/a2
Nov ’25UK£0.52
UK£0.93
+79.6%
2.7%UK£0.95UK£0.90n/a2
Oct ’25UK£0.50
UK£0.93
+85.0%
2.7%UK£0.95UK£0.90n/a2
Sep ’25UK£0.51
UK£0.93
+81.4%
2.7%UK£0.95UK£0.90n/a2
Aug ’25UK£0.54
UK£0.93
+71.3%
2.7%UK£0.95UK£0.90n/a2
Jul ’25UK£0.59
UK£1.05
+78.0%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Jun ’25UK£0.53
UK£1.05
+100.0%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
May ’25UK£0.49
UK£1.05
+114.3%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Apr ’25UK£0.46
UK£1.05
+128.3%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Mar ’25UK£0.48
UK£1.05
+118.8%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Feb ’25UK£0.41
UK£1.05
+153.0%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Jan ’25UK£0.49
UK£1.05
+112.1%
9.5%UK£1.15UK£0.95n/a2
Dec ’24UK£0.56
UK£1.23
+118.8%
14.3%UK£1.40UK£1.05UK£0.482
Nov ’24UK£0.60
UK£1.23
+104.2%
14.3%UK£1.40UK£1.05UK£0.522
Oct ’24UK£0.70
UK£1.38
+95.3%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.502
Sep ’24UK£0.77
UK£1.38
+78.6%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.512
Aug ’24UK£0.82
UK£1.38
+67.7%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.542
Jul ’24UK£0.85
UK£1.38
+61.8%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.592
Jun ’24UK£0.96
UK£1.38
+43.2%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.532
May ’24UK£1.08
UK£1.38
+27.9%
23.6%UK£1.70UK£1.05UK£0.492
Apr ’24UK£1.20
UK£1.28
+6.3%
33.3%UK£1.70UK£0.85UK£0.462
Mar ’24UK£1.24
UK£1.28
+2.8%
33.3%UK£1.70UK£0.85UK£0.482
Feb ’24UK£1.13
UK£1.28
+13.3%
33.3%UK£1.70UK£0.85UK£0.412
Jan ’24UK£0.85
UK£1.28
+50.0%
33.3%UK£1.70UK£0.85UK£0.492
Dec ’23UK£0.88
UK£1.28
+45.7%
33.3%UK£1.70UK£0.85UK£0.562

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 18:57
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tortilla Mexican Grill plc is covered by 3 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nigel ParsonCavendish
Michael CliftonCavendish
Anna BarnfatherPanmure Liberum