Tortilla Mexican Grill Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MEX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MEX (£0.49) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£1.23)

Is MEX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEX (£0.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEX?

Key metric: As MEX is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MEX. This is calculated by dividing MEX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MEX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.3x
Sales	UK£64.48m
Market Cap	UK£18.95m

MEX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MEX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MEX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.6x
PIER Brighton Pier Group	0.4x	n/a	UK£11.7m
HVTA Heavitree Brewery	1.1x	n/a	UK£10.4m
VARE Various Eateries	0.7x	6.3%	UK£31.1m
THW Daniel Thwaites	0.4x	n/a	UK£48.5m
MEX Tortilla Mexican Grill	0.3x	11.6%	UK£18.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MEX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
EVOK Evoke	0.1x	6.6%	US$311.51m
TRC Revel Collective	0.06x	-3.1%	US$10.86m
NGHT Nightcap	0.1x	n/a	US$8.62m
COM Comptoir Group	0.1x	n/a	US$5.65m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.3x
Fair PS Ratio	0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MEX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£0.48	UK£0.93 +90.7%	2.7%	UK£0.95	UK£0.90	n/a	2
Nov ’25	UK£0.52	UK£0.93 +79.6%	2.7%	UK£0.95	UK£0.90	n/a	2
Oct ’25	UK£0.50	UK£0.93 +85.0%	2.7%	UK£0.95	UK£0.90	n/a	2
Sep ’25	UK£0.51	UK£0.93 +81.4%	2.7%	UK£0.95	UK£0.90	n/a	2
Aug ’25	UK£0.54	UK£0.93 +71.3%	2.7%	UK£0.95	UK£0.90	n/a	2
Jul ’25	UK£0.59	UK£1.05 +78.0%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Jun ’25	UK£0.53	UK£1.05 +100.0%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
May ’25	UK£0.49	UK£1.05 +114.3%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Apr ’25	UK£0.46	UK£1.05 +128.3%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Mar ’25	UK£0.48	UK£1.05 +118.8%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Feb ’25	UK£0.41	UK£1.05 +153.0%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Jan ’25	UK£0.49	UK£1.05 +112.1%	9.5%	UK£1.15	UK£0.95	n/a	2
Dec ’24	UK£0.56	UK£1.23 +118.8%	14.3%	UK£1.40	UK£1.05	n/a	2
Nov ’24	UK£0.60	UK£1.23 +104.2%	14.3%	UK£1.40	UK£1.05	UK£0.52	2
Oct ’24	UK£0.70	UK£1.38 +95.3%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.50	2
Sep ’24	UK£0.77	UK£1.38 +78.6%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.51	2
Aug ’24	UK£0.82	UK£1.38 +67.7%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.54	2
Jul ’24	UK£0.85	UK£1.38 +61.8%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.59	2
Jun ’24	UK£0.96	UK£1.38 +43.2%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.53	2
May ’24	UK£1.08	UK£1.38 +27.9%	23.6%	UK£1.70	UK£1.05	UK£0.49	2
Apr ’24	UK£1.20	UK£1.28 +6.3%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.46	2
Mar ’24	UK£1.24	UK£1.28 +2.8%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.48	2
Feb ’24	UK£1.13	UK£1.28 +13.3%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.41	2
Jan ’24	UK£0.85	UK£1.28 +50.0%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.49	2
Dec ’23	UK£0.88	UK£1.28 +45.7%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.56	2
Nov ’23	UK£0.88	UK£1.28 +44.9%	33.3%	UK£1.70	UK£0.85	UK£0.60	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.