The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Loungers plc (LON:LGRS) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Loungers
What Is Loungers's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of October 2020 Loungers had UK£39.5m of debt, an increase on UK£32.1m, over one year. On the flip side, it has UK£25.9m in cash leading to net debt of about UK£13.5m.
A Look At Loungers' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Loungers had liabilities of UK£46.3m due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£137.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of UK£25.9m and UK£2.21m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total UK£155.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of UK£239.6m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Loungers' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Loungers has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.79 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 1.0 times the interest expense. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. Shareholders should be aware that Loungers's EBIT was down 52% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Loungers's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Loungers recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 96% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Loungers's EBIT growth rate and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Loungers is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Loungers (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About AIM:LGRS
Loungers
Operates cafés, bars, and restaurants under the Lounge and Cosy Club brand names in England and Wales.
Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.