The Swatch Group AG

BATS-CHIXE:UHRZ Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 8.3b

Swatch Group Valuation

Is UHRZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UHRZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UHRZ (CHF160.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF163.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UHRZ is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UHRZ?

Key metric: As UHRZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UHRZ. This is calculated by dividing UHRZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UHRZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.1x
EarningsCHF 519.00m
Market CapCHF 8.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UHRZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UHRZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average44.9x
BRBY Burberry Group
85x38.9%UK£3.2b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
53.9x42.7%UK£6.1b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
11x-4.2%UK£4.4b
GAW Games Workshop Group
29.9x4.4%UK£4.5b
UHRZ Swatch Group
16.1x13.2%CHF 8.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UHRZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the peer average (44.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UHRZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Luxury Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies6PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UHRZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the European Luxury industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UHRZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UHRZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.1x
Fair PE Ratio21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UHRZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UHRZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 160.80
CHF 176.26
+9.6%
23.6%CHF 333.00CHF 120.00n/a23
Nov ’25CHF 180.15
CHF 178.56
-0.9%
23.6%CHF 333.00CHF 120.00n/a23
Oct ’25CHF 178.05
CHF 179.10
+0.6%
24.5%CHF 333.00CHF 120.00n/a21
Sep ’25CHF 178.30
CHF 193.62
+8.6%
19.7%CHF 333.00CHF 145.00n/a21
Aug ’25CHF 180.10
CHF 198.14
+10.0%
19.9%CHF 333.00CHF 145.00n/a21
Jul ’25CHF 185.40
CHF 223.55
+20.6%
16.7%CHF 368.00CHF 190.00n/a20
Jun ’25CHF 192.75
CHF 228.55
+18.6%
15.8%CHF 368.00CHF 190.00n/a20
May ’25CHF 194.00
CHF 230.55
+18.8%
15.7%CHF 368.00CHF 190.00n/a20
Apr ’25CHF 208.90
CHF 239.05
+14.4%
17.7%CHF 368.00CHF 200.00n/a21
Mar ’25CHF 212.00
CHF 238.64
+12.6%
17.3%CHF 368.00CHF 200.00n/a22
Feb ’25CHF 201.60
CHF 244.95
+21.5%
16.3%CHF 368.00CHF 202.00n/a22
Jan ’25CHF 228.50
CHF 281.32
+23.1%
14.7%CHF 368.00CHF 235.00n/a22
Dec ’24CHF 230.90
CHF 290.95
+26.0%
14.6%CHF 368.00CHF 235.00n/a22
Nov ’24CHF 235.40
CHF 297.09
+26.2%
14.5%CHF 368.00CHF 235.00CHF 180.1522
Oct ’24CHF 235.70
CHF 305.32
+29.5%
13.8%CHF 368.00CHF 240.00CHF 178.0522
Sep ’24CHF 251.30
CHF 320.22
+27.4%
15.0%CHF 400.00CHF 200.00CHF 178.3023
Aug ’24CHF 279.00
CHF 320.65
+14.9%
15.1%CHF 400.00CHF 200.00CHF 180.1023
Jul ’24CHF 261.40
CHF 321.86
+23.1%
13.4%CHF 400.00CHF 200.00CHF 185.4022
Jun ’24CHF 262.10
CHF 332.18
+26.7%
13.4%CHF 400.00CHF 180.00CHF 192.7522
May ’24CHF 304.80
CHF 332.41
+9.1%
13.5%CHF 400.00CHF 180.00CHF 194.0022
Apr ’24CHF 312.70
CHF 332.41
+6.3%
13.5%CHF 400.00CHF 180.00CHF 208.9022
Mar ’24CHF 331.30
CHF 328.26
-0.9%
13.0%CHF 375.00CHF 180.00CHF 212.0023
Feb ’24CHF 326.70
CHF 317.67
-2.8%
13.8%CHF 375.00CHF 180.00CHF 201.6024
Jan ’24CHF 264.60
CHF 274.74
+3.8%
14.5%CHF 350.00CHF 180.00CHF 228.5023
Dec ’23CHF 252.30
CHF 273.83
+8.5%
14.6%CHF 350.00CHF 180.00CHF 230.9023
Nov ’23CHF 232.10
CHF 281.68
+21.4%
13.8%CHF 360.00CHF 220.00CHF 235.4022

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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