MJ Gleeson Valuation

Is GLEl undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GLEl when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GLEl (£5.01) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.82)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GLEl is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GLEl?

Key metric: As GLEl is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GLEl. This is calculated by dividing GLEl's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GLEl's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.4x
Earnings	UK£19.31m
Market Cap	UK£296.52m

GLEl key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.1x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GLEl's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GLEl vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.1x
BOOT Henry Boot	26.2x	25.5%	UK£296.7m
SPR Springfield Properties	14x	19.6%	UK£105.7m
CRN Cairn Homes	11.6x	5.5%	UK£1.1b
VTY Vistry Group	8.4x	13.3%	UK£2.2b
GLEl MJ Gleeson	15.4x	15.0%	UK£296.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GLEl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the peer average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GLEl's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GLEl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GLEl's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GLEl PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.4x
Fair PE Ratio	15.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GLEl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GLEl forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£5.01	UK£6.72 +34.0%	8.7%	UK£8.04	UK£6.10	n/a	7
Nov ’25	UK£5.95	UK£6.84 +15.0%	8.6%	UK£8.04	UK£6.10	n/a	7
Oct ’25	UK£6.16	UK£6.81 +10.5%	8.5%	UK£8.04	UK£6.10	n/a	7
Sep ’25	UK£5.90	UK£6.62 +12.3%	9.7%	UK£8.04	UK£5.90	n/a	7
Aug ’25	UK£5.92	UK£6.41 +8.3%	4.4%	UK£6.70	UK£5.90	n/a	7
Jul ’25	UK£5.18	UK£6.23 +20.3%	3.8%	UK£6.50	UK£5.90	n/a	7
Jun ’25	UK£5.73	UK£6.77 +18.1%	32.0%	UK£12.00	UK£5.18	n/a	7
May ’25	UK£5.01	UK£6.77 +35.1%	32.0%	UK£12.00	UK£5.18	n/a	7
Apr ’25	UK£4.88	UK£6.77 +38.7%	32.0%	UK£12.00	UK£5.18	n/a	7
Mar ’25	UK£5.23	UK£6.77 +29.4%	32.0%	UK£12.00	UK£5.18	n/a	7
Feb ’25	UK£4.70	UK£6.53 +39.0%	34.5%	UK£12.00	UK£5.18	n/a	7
Jan ’25	UK£4.85	UK£6.46 +33.1%	35.6%	UK£12.00	UK£4.90	n/a	7
Dec ’24	UK£4.52	UK£6.49 +43.6%	35.2%	UK£12.00	UK£4.90	n/a	7
Nov ’24	UK£4.06	UK£6.35 +56.4%	37.2%	UK£12.00	UK£4.65	UK£5.95	7
Oct ’24	UK£4.21	UK£6.35 +50.8%	37.2%	UK£12.00	UK£4.65	UK£6.16	7
Sep ’24	UK£3.86	UK£6.41 +66.0%	39.7%	UK£12.00	UK£4.70	UK£5.90	6
Aug ’24	UK£4.18	UK£6.41 +53.3%	39.7%	UK£12.00	UK£4.70	UK£5.92	6
Jul ’24	UK£3.72	UK£6.46 +73.6%	39.0%	UK£12.00	UK£4.80	UK£5.18	6
Jun ’24	UK£4.29	UK£6.51 +51.7%	38.1%	UK£12.00	UK£5.00	UK£5.73	6
May ’24	UK£4.24	UK£6.43 +51.6%	39.4%	UK£12.00	UK£4.70	UK£5.01	6
Apr ’24	UK£4.35	UK£6.43 +47.7%	39.4%	UK£12.00	UK£4.70	UK£4.88	6
Mar ’24	UK£4.63	UK£6.43 +38.8%	39.4%	UK£12.00	UK£4.70	UK£5.23	6
Feb ’24	UK£4.06	UK£6.26 +54.1%	41.8%	UK£12.00	UK£4.65	UK£4.70	6
Jan ’24	UK£3.45	UK£6.26 +81.3%	41.8%	UK£12.00	UK£4.65	UK£4.85	6
Dec ’23	UK£3.78	UK£6.22 +64.6%	42.4%	UK£12.00	UK£4.45	UK£4.52	6
Nov ’23	UK£3.71	UK£8.18 +120.4%	24.8%	UK£12.00	UK£5.20	UK£4.06	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.