Cairn Homes plc

BATS-CHIXE:CRNL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.1b

Cairn Homes Valuation

Is CRNL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CRNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CRNL (£1.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CRNL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CRNL?

Key metric: As CRNL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CRNL. This is calculated by dividing CRNL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CRNL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.9x
Earnings€111.62m
Market Cap€1.32b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CRNL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CRNL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.2x
VTY Vistry Group
8.3x13.3%UK£2.1b
BOOT Henry Boot
26.2x25.5%UK£296.7m
BWY Bellway
22.7x21.9%UK£3.0b
GLE MJ Gleeson
15.6x15.0%UK£301.2m
CRNL Cairn Homes
11.9x5.5%UK£1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CRNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CRNL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies11PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CRNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CRNL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CRNL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.9x
Fair PE Ratio14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CRNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CRNL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.75
UK£1.74
-0.5%
0.1%UK£1.74UK£1.74n/a2
Nov ’25UK£1.82
UK£1.74
-4.5%
0.1%UK£1.74UK£1.74n/a2
Oct ’25UK£1.61
UK£1.74
+7.7%
0.1%UK£1.74UK£1.74n/a2
Sep ’25UK£1.64
UK£1.74
+6.0%
1.4%UK£1.76UK£1.70n/a3
Aug ’25UK£1.58
UK£1.70
+7.3%
2.4%UK£1.75UK£1.65n/a3
Jul ’25UK£1.33
UK£1.72
+28.9%
3.1%UK£1.78UK£1.65n/a3
Jun ’25UK£1.45
UK£1.72
+18.2%
3.1%UK£1.78UK£1.65n/a3
May ’25UK£1.36
UK£1.66
+21.6%
7.0%UK£1.77UK£1.50n/a3
Apr ’25UK£1.37
UK£1.63
+18.8%
5.7%UK£1.71UK£1.50n/a3
Mar ’25UK£1.24
UK£1.63
+31.9%
5.7%UK£1.71UK£1.50n/a3
Feb ’25UK£1.20
UK£1.58
+31.3%
5.8%UK£1.67UK£1.49n/a2
Jan ’25UK£1.16
UK£1.47
+27.3%
8.3%UK£1.61UK£1.31n/a3
Dec ’24UK£1.08
UK£1.47
+36.0%
8.3%UK£1.61UK£1.31n/a3
Nov ’24UK£0.99
UK£1.41
+42.7%
8.9%UK£1.59UK£1.30UK£1.823
Oct ’24UK£0.96
UK£1.39
+45.0%
6.2%UK£1.51UK£1.30UK£1.613
Sep ’24UK£1.00
UK£1.37
+37.1%
7.4%UK£1.50UK£1.25UK£1.643
Aug ’24UK£0.93
UK£1.37
+46.3%
7.4%UK£1.50UK£1.25UK£1.583
Jul ’24UK£1.00
UK£1.37
+37.1%
8.3%UK£1.52UK£1.25UK£1.333
Jun ’24UK£0.92
UK£1.37
+48.9%
8.3%UK£1.52UK£1.25UK£1.453
May ’24UK£0.90
UK£1.37
+52.0%
8.9%UK£1.53UK£1.24UK£1.363
Apr ’24UK£0.90
UK£1.37
+53.1%
8.9%UK£1.53UK£1.24UK£1.373
Mar ’24UK£0.85
UK£1.28
+50.9%
6.1%UK£1.36UK£1.20UK£1.242
Feb ’24UK£0.87
UK£1.28
+47.1%
6.1%UK£1.36UK£1.20UK£1.202
Jan ’24UK£0.77
UK£1.34
+74.6%
7.3%UK£1.44UK£1.20UK£1.163
Dec ’23UK£0.79
UK£1.34
+68.9%
7.3%UK£1.44UK£1.20UK£1.083
Nov ’23UK£0.85
UK£1.35
+59.4%
6.5%UK£1.43UK£1.20UK£0.994

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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