Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Colefax Group PLC (LON:CFX)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Colefax Group PLC (LON:CFX) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Colefax Group

The method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£7.23m	UK£6.00m	UK£5.31m	UK£4.90m	UK£4.64m	UK£4.49m	UK£4.39m	UK£4.34m	UK£4.32m	UK£4.31m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -24.55%	Est @ -16.91%	Est @ -11.56%	Est @ -7.81%	Est @ -5.19%	Est @ -3.35%	Est @ -2.07%	Est @ -1.17%	Est @ -0.54%	Est @ -0.1%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3%	UK£6.7	UK£5.2	UK£4.3	UK£3.7	UK£3.3	UK£2.9	UK£2.7	UK£2.5	UK£2.3	UK£2.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£35m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£4.3m× (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (7.3%– 0.9%) = UK£68m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£68m÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)¹⁰= UK£34m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£69m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£7.9, the company appears about fair value at a 9.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Colefax Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.318. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Colefax Group, we've compiled three additional aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Colefax Group you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does CFX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.