Serco Group plc

LSE:SRP Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.5b

Serco Group Valuation

Is SRP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SRP (£1.53) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRP?

Key metric: As SRP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SRP. This is calculated by dividing SRP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SRP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.1x
EarningsUK£139.00m
Market CapUK£1.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.2x
MTO Mitie Group
11.4x11.3%UK£1.4b
RWI Renewi
25.6x36.6%UK£644.5m
RTO Rentokil Initial
25.6x15.4%UK£10.0b
WATR Water Intelligence
18.1x15.6%UK£69.5m
SRP Serco Group
11.1x2.5%UK£1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the peer average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Commercial Services Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SRP 11.1xIndustry Avg. 14.0xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the European Commercial Services industry average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.1x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.53
UK£2.14
+40.0%
17.0%UK£2.79UK£1.40n/a12
Dec ’25UK£1.57
UK£2.22
+41.7%
13.0%UK£2.84UK£1.85n/a12
Nov ’25UK£1.76
UK£2.29
+30.4%
10.4%UK£2.84UK£2.00n/a12
Oct ’25UK£1.77
UK£2.29
+29.5%
10.4%UK£2.84UK£2.00n/a12
Sep ’25UK£1.75
UK£2.29
+31.3%
10.4%UK£2.84UK£2.00n/a12
Aug ’25UK£1.79
UK£2.31
+28.5%
10.6%UK£2.83UK£2.00n/a11
Jul ’25UK£1.81
UK£2.29
+26.6%
11.1%UK£2.83UK£2.00n/a11
Jun ’25UK£1.78
UK£2.24
+25.8%
9.4%UK£2.66UK£2.00n/a11
May ’25UK£1.82
UK£2.24
+23.1%
9.4%UK£2.66UK£2.00n/a11
Apr ’25UK£1.90
UK£2.25
+18.8%
9.6%UK£2.66UK£2.00n/a10
Mar ’25UK£1.89
UK£2.29
+21.0%
15.3%UK£3.24UK£2.00n/a11
Feb ’25UK£1.77
UK£2.23
+25.8%
17.4%UK£3.24UK£1.85n/a11
Jan ’25UK£1.62
UK£2.23
+37.3%
17.4%UK£3.24UK£1.85n/a11
Dec ’24UK£1.58
UK£2.21
+39.6%
17.8%UK£3.24UK£1.85UK£1.5711
Nov ’24UK£1.43
UK£2.21
+54.4%
17.8%UK£3.24UK£1.85UK£1.7611
Oct ’24UK£1.49
UK£2.21
+48.2%
17.8%UK£3.24UK£1.85UK£1.7711
Sep ’24UK£1.52
UK£2.21
+45.0%
17.8%UK£3.24UK£1.85UK£1.7511
Aug ’24UK£1.57
UK£2.08
+32.6%
10.2%UK£2.54UK£1.85UK£1.7911
Jul ’24UK£1.56
UK£2.03
+30.4%
8.0%UK£2.30UK£1.75UK£1.8111
Jun ’24UK£1.45
UK£2.00
+38.4%
7.2%UK£2.30UK£1.75UK£1.7811
May ’24UK£1.52
UK£2.00
+31.8%
7.2%UK£2.30UK£1.75UK£1.8211
Apr ’24UK£1.53
UK£2.00
+30.7%
7.2%UK£2.30UK£1.75UK£1.9011
Mar ’24UK£1.64
UK£2.02
+23.3%
7.7%UK£2.30UK£1.75UK£1.8911
Feb ’24UK£1.46
UK£2.02
+37.8%
7.5%UK£2.24UK£1.75UK£1.7710
Jan ’24UK£1.55
UK£2.03
+30.4%
6.8%UK£2.24UK£1.85UK£1.6210
Dec ’23UK£1.72
UK£2.07
+20.2%
9.7%UK£2.58UK£1.85UK£1.5810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 02:44
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Serco Group plc is covered by 41 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alejandro AcostaAlezor Research
James RosenthalBarclays
Paul Daniel SullivanBarclays