Serco Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
Serco Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -21.3%, while the Commercial Services industry saw earnings growing at 13.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 3.7% per year. Serco Group's return on equity is 16.7%, and it has net margins of 3%.
Key information
-21.29%
Earnings growth rate
-17.59%
EPS growth rate
| Commercial Services Industry Growth | 27.48% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.68% |
| Return on equity | 16.67% |
| Net Margin | 2.99% |
| Next Earnings Update | 06 Aug 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 17
SRP: Neutral Initiation And Hospital Contract Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Serco Group to £3.06 from £2.89, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly lower future P/E multiple following recent Street research that includes a neutral initiation. What’s in the News for Serco Group Serco Group PLC retained its facilities management contract at Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital.
Narrative Update • Jun 03
SRP: Rising Optimism And Capital Returns Will Likely Constrain Future Share Upside
Serco Group’s analyst price targets have been revised higher, with the consolidated fair value estimate moving from £1.59 to about £1.66. Analysts are factoring in updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, alongside recent target lifts from Citi to £3.69 and Berenberg to £3.50, and a new neutral initiation from BNP Paribas.
Narrative Update • May 19
SRP: Higher Earnings Visibility And Capital Returns Will Support Future Rerating
Analysts have nudged their average price outlook for Serco Group higher, into a £3.50 to £3.69 range, reflecting recent target increases and refreshed views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Serco Group points to a mixed but generally constructive tone, with price targets now clustering in the mid £3 range and views ranging from neutral to positive.Narrative Update • May 03
SRP: Higher Earnings Visibility And Capital Returns Will Support Rerating
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Serco Group from £2.98 to £3.85. Recent target price increases from several banks, along with slightly revised assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, have all contributed to the updated view.Narrative Update • Apr 18
SRP: Rising Price Optimism And Buybacks Will Likely Restrain Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their price targets for Serco Group to a range that now spans about £350 to £369 per share, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, modestly higher revenue growth and slightly improved profit margin and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to higher price targets for Serco Group clustered between about £3.50 and £3.69 per share, with several firms reiterating positive stances alongside their revised numbers.Narrative Update • Apr 04
SRP: Rising Price Optimism And Buybacks Will Still Limit Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their average price target for Serco Group by £0.45, with recent Street research citing refreshed views on discount rates, revenue growth and profit margins as key drivers behind the updated valuations. Analyst Commentary Recent research has highlighted a cluster of upward price target revisions on Serco Group, with several firms recalibrating their models around updated assumptions for growth, margins and discount rates.Narrative Update • Mar 20
SRP: Higher Buybacks And Dividend Will Still Cap Future Upside
Analysts have lifted Serco Group's price targets, with recent moves such as Citi's increase to £3.69 from £3.24 and Berenberg's to £3.50 from £3.30, while fine tuning assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E to reflect updated views on the business. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Serco Group has centred on reassessing fair value, with several firms updating their price targets in light of revised assumptions on growth, profitability and risk.Narrative Update • Mar 06
SRP: Fair Value View Will Rely On Defence Visibility And CFO Transition
Serco Group's implied fair value has increased from £2.73 to £2.89 per share. This change reflects analysts' updated price targets and assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples following recent research updates from several banks.Narrative Update • Feb 20
SRP: Raised Guidance And Contract Wins Will Still Cap Future Upside
Analysts have nudged up their implied fair value for Serco Group to £1.64 per share, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, along with a series of recent price target increases to as high as £2.45 from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research has highlighted a gap between Serco Group’s trading price, the raised price targets and the updated implied fair value of £1.64 per share.Narrative Update • Feb 06
SRP: Fair Value View Will Rely On Execution And New CFO Transition
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Serco Group slightly higher to £2.73 per share, citing recent price target increases to £2.45 and £2.75 that reflect updated views on discount rates, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a generally constructive stance on Serco Group, with fair value and price targets clustered in the mid £2 range and modestly above.Narrative Update • Jan 23
SRP: Execution And Margin Risks Will Limit Upside Despite Higher Guidance
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Serco Group slightly lower to £1.64 from £1.66, as recent price target increases to £2.45 by several firms are balanced against updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Serco Group points to a more mixed backdrop than headline price targets alone might suggest.Narrative Update • Jan 08
SRP: Discount Rate Assumptions Will Expose Limited Upside Risk Ahead
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Serco Group to £1.66 from £1.47, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, alongside a higher £2.45 Street price target. Analyst Commentary Recent research activity around Serco Group points to a more cautious tone, even where headline price targets sit above the current fair value estimate.Narrative Update • Dec 25
SRP: Defense Contracts And New CFO Will Support Steady Medium Term Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Serco Group from £2.54 to £2.71, citing a slightly lower discount rate, improved profit margin expectations, and a marginally higher future P E multiple that together more than offset a small reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News Serco appointed Mark Reid, currently Group CFO at Belgian telecoms group Proximus, as Chief Financial Officer effective 6 March 2026.Narrative Update • Dec 11
SRP: Defense Contracts Will Support Steady Outlook With Balanced Long Term Prospects
Analysts have nudged up their price target on Serco Group by approximately 1 percent in sterling terms, citing a slightly lower implied discount rate, marginally stronger long term revenue growth assumptions, and a modestly higher future P E multiple that more than offset a broadly unchanged profit margin outlook. What's in the News Serco secured a new contract worth around £500 million to continue managing HMP Dovegate in Staffordshire for 12 years, with options for three additional one-year extensions, following a competitive procurement process (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Nov 27
SRP: US Air Force Contract Will Support Measured Gains Amid Defense Sector Stability
Serco Group's analyst price target remains steady at £2.52. Analysts' outlook remains unchanged, as incremental shifts in underlying profit and revenue forecasts are viewed as broadly neutral to the company's value proposition.Narrative Update • Nov 06
SRP: Defense Contract Win Will Drive Measured Progress Amid Ongoing Sector Uncertainty
Narrative Update on Serco Group Analysts have raised their price target for Serco Group by £0.05 to £2.15 per share, citing a modest improvement in fair value estimates and a stable outlook on profitability. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts have slightly increased their price targets, which suggests renewed confidence in Serco Group's valuation prospects.Narrative Update • Sep 13
Expanding North American And European Contracts Will Unlock Future Potential
Analysts have raised Serco Group’s price target to £2.45, reflecting improved contract wins, stronger order book momentum, and enhanced margin guidance, despite ongoing caution around cyclical risks. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are revising price targets upwards, citing improved contract wins and stronger order book momentum.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Expanding North American And European Contracts Will Unlock Future Potential
Serco Group's consensus price target has been raised to £2.40, reflecting upgrades driven by stronger recent results, robust contract momentum, margin expansion, and improved confidence in revenue growth and international diversification. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have increased price targets due to stronger-than-expected performance in recent results.
New Narrative • Mar 10
International Expansion And Defense Focus Will Boost Future Prospects
Strategic growth initiatives in the defense sector and North America are expected to drive revenue and profit, boosted by key acquisitions.Analysis Article • Jun 10
There's No Escaping Serco Group plc's (LON:SRP) Muted Earnings
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.2x Serco Group plc ( LON:SRP ) may be sending bullish signals at the...Analysis Article • May 22
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Serco Group plc (LON:SRP)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Serco Group fair value estimate is UK£2.05 Serco Group's...Analysis Article • Feb 23
With EPS Growth And More, Serco Group (LON:SRP) Makes An Interesting Case
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Dec 13
Is Serco Group plc (LON:SRP) Worth UK£1.6 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?
Key Insights Serco Group's estimated fair value is UK£1.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Analysis Article • Nov 10
Here's Why Serco Group (LON:SRP) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Sep 04
Serco Group's (LON:SRP) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year
Serco Group plc's ( LON:SRP ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 6th of October to £0.0114, with investors...Analysis Article • Aug 20
Serco Group (LON:SRP) Is Increasing Its Dividend To £0.0114
Serco Group plc's ( LON:SRP ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 6th of October to £0.0114, with investors...Analysis Article • Aug 06
Serco Group (LON:SRP) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year
The board of Serco Group plc ( LON:SRP ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend by 21% on the 6th of...Analysis Article • Mar 21
These 4 Measures Indicate That Serco Group (LON:SRP) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Mar 03
Serco Group (LON:SRP) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To £0.0192
Serco Group plc ( LON:SRP ) has announced that it will be increasing its periodic dividend on the 9th of June to...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Serco Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 4,877 | 146 | 270 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 4,862 | 97 | 270 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 4,847 | 49 | 270 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 4,817 | 46 | 269 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 4,787 | 44 | 268 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 4,774 | 92 | 270 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 4,761 | 139 | 273 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 4,817 | 171 | 274 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 4,874 | 202 | 276 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 4,851 | 207 | 273 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 4,828 | 212 | 271 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 4,681 | 184 | 268 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 4,534 | 155 | 264 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 4,485 | 158 | 260 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 4,436 | 160 | 255 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 4,430 | 232 | 249 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 4,425 | 304 | 243 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,327 | 301 | 236 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 4,230 | 299 | 229 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 4,057 | 216 | 224 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 3,885 | 134 | 220 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 3,740 | 128 | 219 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 3,595 | 123 | 218 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 3,422 | 86 | 216 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 3,248 | 50 | 214 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 3,097 | 51 | 211 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 2,946 | 51 | 207 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 2,891 | 59 | 205 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 2,837 | 67 | 202 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 2,823 | 46 | 202 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 2,810 | 26 | 202 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 2,880 | 9 | 210 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 2,951 | -8 | 218 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 2,988 | -33 | 220 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 3,025 | -57 | 221 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 3,018 | -20 | 216 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 3,011 | 17 | 212 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 3,034 | 5 | 212 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 3,058 | -7 | 212 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 3,117 | -47 | 231 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 3,177 | -86 | 249 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 3,182 | -1,024 | 562 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: SRP has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: SRP's current net profit margins (3%) are higher than last year (0.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: SRP's earnings have declined by 21.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: SRP's earnings growth over the past year (229.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-21.3% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: SRP earnings growth over the past year (229.4%) exceeded the Commercial Services industry 1.8%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: SRP's Return on Equity (16.7%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/25 23:19 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/25 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Serco Group plc is covered by 25 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| James Rosenthal | Barclays |
| Paul Daniel Sullivan | Barclays |
| Alex Smith | Berenberg |