Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk'. When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies De La Rue plc (LON:DLAR) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for De La Rue
What Is De La Rue's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that De La Rue had UK£116.6m in debt in March 2020; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of UK£14.6m, its net debt is less, at about UK£102.0m.
How Strong Is De La Rue's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that De La Rue had liabilities of UK£290.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of UK£24.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had UK£14.6m in cash and UK£80.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£219.3m.
This deficit casts a shadow over the UK£142.9m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, De La Rue would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
De La Rue's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.2 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even worse, De La Rue saw its EBIT tank 63% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine De La Rue's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Considering the last three years, De La Rue actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
To be frank both De La Rue's level of total liabilities and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think De La Rue has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for De La Rue you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About LSE:DLAR
De La Rue
Provides secure physical and digital tools for government and commercial organization in the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, the United States, Rest of Europe, and internationally.
Moderate growth potential low.
