Here's Why We Think Mind Gym's (LON:MIND) Statutory Earnings Might Be Conservative

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. However, sometimes companies receive a one-off boost (or reduction) to their profit, and it's not always clear whether statutory profits are a good guide, going forward. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Mind Gym (LON:MIND).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Mind Gym made a profit of UK£1.29m on revenue of UK£38.8m. As you can see in the chart below, its profit has declined over the last three years, even though its revenue has increased.

View our latest analysis for Mind Gym

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll look at what Mind Gym's cashflow tells us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Zooming In On Mind Gym's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2020, Mind Gym had an accrual ratio of -1.38. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of UK£5.6m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of UK£1.29m. Mind Gym's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons.

Our Take On Mind Gym's Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, Mind Gym produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Because of this, we think Mind Gym's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mind Gym you should know about.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Mind Gym's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

If you decide to trade Mind Gym, use the lowest-cost* platform that is rated #1 Overall by Barron’s, Interactive Brokers. Trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds on 135 markets, all from a single integrated account. Promoted

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
^*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.