Trifast plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Trifast plc (LON:TRI) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at UK£223m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 81%, coming in at just UK£0.0077 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Trifast's three analysts is for revenues of UK£214.0m in 2026, which would reflect a noticeable 4.2% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 620% to UK£0.056. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£244.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.075 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Trifast's prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for Trifast

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of UK£1.15, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Trifast's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Trifast analyst has a price target of UK£1.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£0.90. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Trifast's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Trifast. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Trifast. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trifast going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Trifast that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.