While Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£13.81 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£11.51. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Grafton Group's current trading price of UK£11.99 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Grafton Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What's the opportunity in Grafton Group?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 10.29% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Grafton Group today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is £10.87, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Grafton Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Grafton Group?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Grafton Group, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -9.6%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Currently, GFTU appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GFTU for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on GFTU should the price fluctuate below its true value.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Grafton Group you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Grafton Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.