Stock Analysis

Do BAE Systems' (LON:BA.) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

LSE:BA.
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It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story even if these companies are loss-making. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like BAE Systems (LON:BA.). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

See our latest analysis for BAE Systems

How Quickly Is BAE Systems Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. Shareholders will be happy to know that BAE Systems' EPS has grown 19% each year, compound, over three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. While we note BAE Systems achieved similar EBIT margins to last year, revenue grew by a solid 13% to UK£23b. That's progress.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
LSE:BA. Earnings and Revenue History November 1st 2023

The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for BAE Systems' future EPS 100% free.

Are BAE Systems Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Owing to the size of BAE Systems, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a significant proportion of the company. But we are reassured by the fact they have invested in the company. Indeed, they hold UK£18m worth of its stock. That's a lot of money, and no small incentive to work hard. Despite being just 0.05% of the company, the value of that investment is enough to show insiders have plenty riding on the venture.

Does BAE Systems Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

For growth investors, BAE Systems' raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. Further, the high level of insider ownership is impressive and suggests that the management appreciates the EPS growth and has faith in BAE Systems' continuing strength. On the balance of its merits, solid EPS growth and company insiders who are aligned with the shareholders would indicate a business that is worthy of further research. Once you've identified a business you like, the next step is to consider what you think it's worth. And right now is your chance to view our exclusive discounted cashflow valuation of BAE Systems. You might benefit from giving it a glance today.

The beauty of investing is that you can invest in almost any company you want. But if you prefer to focus on stocks that have demonstrated insider buying, here is a list of companies with insider buying in the last three months.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether BAE Systems is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.