BAE Systems plc's (LON:BA.) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

BAE Systems plc's (LON:BA.) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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BAE Systems' earnings growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this modest earnings performance will accelerate. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as BAE Systems' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 6.0% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 18% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 16% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it concerning that BAE Systems is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that BAE Systems currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for BAE Systems that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on BAE Systems, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.