Avation PLC

LSE:AVAP Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£108.8m

Avation Valuation

Is AVAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVAP (£1.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£18.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVAP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVAP?

Key metric: As AVAP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AVAP. This is calculated by dividing AVAP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AVAP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.9x
EarningsUS$19.74m
Market CapUS$136.81m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVAP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.6x
DNA3 Doric Nimrod Air Three
3.1xn/aUK£136.4m
DNA2 Doric Nimrod Air Two
3.5xn/aUK£176.5m
MACF Macfarlane Group
11.6x8.3%UK£171.2m
ASY Andrews Sykes Group
12xn/aUK£207.8m
AVAP Avation
6.9xn/aUK£108.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVAP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AVAP 6.9xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVAP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVAP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AVAP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVAP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.54
UK£2.53
+64.5%
1.0%UK£2.55UK£2.50n/a2
Dec ’25UK£1.59
UK£2.53
+59.3%
1.0%UK£2.55UK£2.50n/a2
Nov ’25UK£1.78
UK£2.53
+41.9%
1.0%UK£2.55UK£2.50n/a2
Oct ’25UK£1.36
UK£2.53
+85.7%
1.0%UK£2.55UK£2.50n/a2
Aug ’25UK£1.28
UK£2.65
+107.0%
5.7%UK£2.80UK£2.50n/a2
Jul ’25UK£1.37
UK£2.65
+94.1%
5.7%UK£2.80UK£2.50n/a2
Jun ’25UK£1.43
UK£2.65
+85.3%
5.7%UK£2.80UK£2.50n/a2
May ’25UK£1.13
UK£2.15
+90.3%
7.0%UK£2.30UK£2.00n/a2
Apr ’25UK£1.14
UK£2.15
+88.6%
7.0%UK£2.30UK£2.00n/a2
Mar ’25UK£1.13
UK£2.15
+90.3%
7.0%UK£2.30UK£2.00n/a2
Feb ’25UK£1.19
UK£2.20
+84.9%
9.1%UK£2.40UK£2.00n/a2
Jan ’25UK£1.27
UK£2.20
+73.2%
9.1%UK£2.40UK£2.00n/a2
Dec ’24UK£1.26
UK£2.20
+74.6%
9.1%UK£2.40UK£2.00UK£1.592
Nov ’24UK£1.25
UK£2.20
+76.0%
9.1%UK£2.40UK£2.00UK£1.782
Oct ’24UK£1.01
UK£2.20
+118.9%
9.1%UK£2.40UK£2.00UK£1.362
Sep ’24UK£1.03
UK£2.25
+118.4%
11.1%UK£2.50UK£2.00UK£1.332
Aug ’24UK£1.03
UK£2.25
+119.5%
11.1%UK£2.50UK£2.00UK£1.282
Jul ’24UK£1.23
UK£2.25
+82.9%
11.1%UK£2.50UK£2.00UK£1.372
Jun ’24UK£1.27
UK£2.25
+77.2%
11.1%UK£2.50UK£2.00UK£1.432
May ’24UK£1.16
UK£2.25
+94.0%
11.1%UK£2.50UK£2.00UK£1.132
Apr ’24UK£1.19
UK£2.28
+92.0%
12.1%UK£2.55UK£2.00UK£1.142
Mar ’24UK£1.23
UK£2.20
+78.9%
15.9%UK£2.55UK£1.85UK£1.132
Feb ’24UK£1.33
UK£2.23
+67.3%
16.9%UK£2.60UK£1.85UK£1.192
Jan ’24UK£0.97
UK£2.38
+144.8%
22.1%UK£2.90UK£1.85UK£1.272
Dec ’23UK£1.14
UK£2.38
+108.3%
22.1%UK£2.90UK£1.85UK£1.262

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 05:00
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Avation PLC is covered by 4 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Damian BrewerCanaccord Genuity
Conor FinnPanmure Liberum
Charlie CullenZeus Capital Limited