Macfarlane Group PLC

LSE:MACF Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£164.9m

Macfarlane Group Valuation

Is MACF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MACF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MACF (£1.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MACF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MACF?

Key metric: As MACF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MACF. This is calculated by dividing MACF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MACF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.2x
EarningsUK£14.70m
Market CapUK£164.86m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MACF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MACF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
DNA2 Doric Nimrod Air Two
3xn/aUK£175.8m
ASY Andrews Sykes Group
12.5xn/aUK£215.6m
DNA3 Doric Nimrod Air Three
2.9xn/aUK£132.0m
SDY Speedy Hire
47.1x52.8%UK£127.3m
MACF Macfarlane Group
11.2x9.2%UK£164.9m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MACF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MACF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MACF 11.2xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies11PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MACF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MACF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MACF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.2x
Fair PE Ratio12.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MACF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MACF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.04
UK£1.43
+37.0%
1.8%UK£1.45UK£1.40n/a2
Nov ’25UK£1.12
UK£1.43
+27.2%
1.8%UK£1.45UK£1.40n/a2
Oct ’25UK£1.10
UK£1.43
+29.5%
1.8%UK£1.45UK£1.40n/a2
Sep ’25UK£1.17
UK£1.50
+28.8%
2.7%UK£1.55UK£1.45n/a3
Aug ’25UK£1.27
UK£1.50
+18.1%
2.7%UK£1.55UK£1.45n/a3
Jul ’25UK£1.19
UK£1.48
+25.2%
3.2%UK£1.55UK£1.45n/a3
Jun ’25UK£1.21
UK£1.48
+23.1%
3.2%UK£1.55UK£1.45n/a3
May ’25UK£1.42
UK£1.47
+3.7%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Apr ’25UK£1.35
UK£1.47
+8.7%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Mar ’25UK£1.25
UK£1.47
+17.9%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Feb ’25UK£1.25
UK£1.47
+17.4%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Jan ’25UK£1.17
UK£1.47
+25.4%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Dec ’24UK£1.10
UK£1.47
+33.4%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42n/a4
Nov ’24UK£1.02
UK£1.47
+43.9%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42UK£1.124
Oct ’24UK£1.09
UK£1.47
+35.3%
3.4%UK£1.55UK£1.42UK£1.104
Sep ’24UK£1.09
UK£1.44
+32.3%
1.0%UK£1.45UK£1.42UK£1.172
Aug ’24UK£1.15
UK£1.44
+24.8%
1.0%UK£1.45UK£1.42UK£1.272
Jul ’24UK£1.08
UK£1.44
+32.9%
1.0%UK£1.45UK£1.42UK£1.192
Jun ’24UK£1.10
UK£1.46
+33.0%
2.3%UK£1.50UK£1.42UK£1.213
May ’24UK£1.07
UK£1.46
+36.0%
3.1%UK£1.50UK£1.41UK£1.422
Apr ’24UK£1.07
UK£1.46
+36.0%
3.1%UK£1.50UK£1.41UK£1.352

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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