Stock Analysis

Should You Think About Buying Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) Now?

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LSE:AHT
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Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the LSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Ashtead Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

What is Ashtead Group worth?

The stock is currently trading at UK£27.76 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 47% compared to my intrinsic value of £18.90. This means that the opportunity to buy Ashtead Group at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Ashtead Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Ashtead Group look like?

LSE:AHT Past and Future Earnings July 3rd 2020
LSE:AHT Past and Future Earnings July 3rd 2020

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Ashtead Group, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 6.5%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in AHT’s future outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe AHT should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on AHT for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Ashtead Group. You can find everything you need to know about Ashtead Group in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Ashtead Group, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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