Ferguson plc

BATS-CHIXE:FERGL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£34.4b

Ferguson Valuation

Is FERGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FERGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FERGL (£172.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£134.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FERGL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FERGL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FERGL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA16.2x
PEG Ratio2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FERGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FERGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25x
AHT Ashtead Group
19.3x9.0%UK£24.9b
BNZL Bunzl
19.8x3.7%UK£10.4b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
18.8x7.7%UK£4.8b
DPLM Diploma
42.2x13.7%UK£5.0b
FERGL Ferguson
24.9x9.0%UK£43.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FERGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the peer average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FERGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.8%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.8%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FERGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the UK Trade Distributors industry average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FERGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FERGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.9x
Fair PE Ratio27.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FERGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FERGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£172.55
UK£172.29
-0.1%
17.2%UK£211.27UK£85.55n/a18
Apr ’25UK£173.48
UK£169.71
-2.2%
17.2%UK£208.10UK£84.27n/a18
Mar ’25UK£169.15
UK£151.04
-10.7%
16.8%UK£186.16UK£83.97n/a16
Feb ’25UK£149.00
UK£148.82
-0.1%
16.1%UK£177.54UK£83.64n/a16
Jan ’25UK£151.00
UK£143.65
-4.9%
14.5%UK£175.81UK£83.95n/a17
Dec ’24UK£135.35
UK£137.64
+1.7%
12.8%UK£153.95UK£84.55n/a17
Nov ’24UK£123.85
UK£141.60
+14.3%
13.2%UK£158.81UK£87.22n/a16
Oct ’24UK£135.90
UK£140.37
+3.3%
12.6%UK£158.21UK£86.89n/a15
Sep ’24UK£128.45
UK£130.87
+1.9%
13.1%UK£149.38UK£84.22n/a14
Aug ’24UK£126.25
UK£125.45
-0.6%
13.5%UK£144.70UK£81.58n/a13
Jul ’24UK£124.35
UK£127.10
+2.2%
13.2%UK£147.29UK£83.05n/a13
Jun ’24UK£116.10
UK£126.72
+9.1%
14.5%UK£156.95UK£84.95n/a11
May ’24UK£112.00
UK£121.60
+8.6%
14.2%UK£157.25UK£85.11UK£169.0010
Apr ’24UK£106.70
UK£121.60
+14.0%
14.2%UK£157.25UK£85.11UK£173.4810
Mar ’24UK£119.50
UK£123.95
+3.7%
15.0%UK£158.59UK£88.84UK£169.1510
Feb ’24UK£114.65
UK£117.07
+2.1%
15.6%UK£153.86UK£86.19UK£149.009
Jan ’24UK£104.65
UK£119.99
+14.7%
15.9%UK£158.02UK£87.69UK£151.009
Dec ’23UK£96.68
UK£116.09
+20.1%
15.8%UK£159.86UK£87.88UK£135.359
Nov ’23UK£95.26
UK£122.38
+28.5%
16.1%UK£169.34UK£98.68UK£123.859
Oct ’23UK£94.34
UK£125.76
+33.3%
15.6%UK£172.42UK£101.11UK£135.909
Sep ’23UK£98.14
UK£118.64
+20.9%
19.2%UK£178.81UK£93.38UK£128.459
Aug ’23UK£101.95
UK£117.78
+15.5%
19.2%UK£177.52UK£92.71UK£126.259
Jul ’23UK£90.32
UK£123.72
+37.0%
19.6%UK£176.10UK£96.20UK£124.358
Jun ’23UK£93.32
UK£141.73
+51.9%
18.3%UK£170.55UK£101.69UK£116.107
May ’23UK£101.50
UK£144.42
+42.3%
16.2%UK£167.18UK£99.68UK£112.006

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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